US milk production continues expanding in June amid higher cow numbers

US milk production continued to expand in June, supported primarily by ongoing dairy herd growth while milk yields remained broadly stable. Production gains were concentrated in a handful of fast-growing states, reinforcing the regional shift in milk supply despite mixed developments in farmgate prices. Although recent heat waves could challenge output in the coming months, the strong first-half performance has kept US milk production on a solid growth trajectory heading into the second half of 2026.The United States’ (US) 24 selected states reached a milk production of 8.59 million tons in June, marking an increase of 2.4% compared to the previous year. The growing output was supported primarily by an expansion of the dairy herd, although yields also provided marginal support.Texas posted the largest absolute growth in milk collections, rising by 4.9% to 715,315 tons. Kansas followed with a 16.7% annual increase, the largest in percentage, to 215,456 tons. The two states contributed an additional 64,410 tons to the US milk output, further concentrating the production in the country. Most of the other states also reported gains, only slightly offset by contractions in Washington (-0.4%) and Wisconsin (-0.9%).Production gains were supported by a widespread increase in the number of milking cows, which increased by 2% year-over-year to 9.23 million heads in the 24 selected states. The rising animal number almost overlaps exactly with the increasing output, with herds in Kansas (+16.5%), Texas (+4.2%), and Wisconsin expanding the most. Herds declined only in three states: Pennsylvania (-1.1%), Washington (-0.8%), and Virginia (-1.5%). This underlines that there is a widespread interest in expanding milk production, especially through the increase in animal production numbers.The rising cow numbers were accompanied by efficiency gains, with milk yields increasing by 0.3% over the previous year to 0.93 tons per head across the 24 selected states. Unless there is a severe challenge for production, such as an illness or environmental problems, it is unlikely that yields improve dramatically in a short period. Yields remained robust and steady in the US instead, without any state posting a decline, and Idaho posting the largest percentage increase (+3.6%).Together with an outstanding performance in the first quarter, the US milk output was consistently positive in the first half of 2026. Cumulative production increased by 2.8% year-over-year to 51.77 million tons in June.At the same time, farmgate prices have steadily recovered, averaging $21.3 per hundredweight (cwt) in June. While this represents a decline of 0.5% compared to the previous year, the gap has steadily closed through every month since January (-27.4%). The price recovery has not spread steadily across the states, but performance has diverged between states. A notable price recovery has occurred in Georgia (+11.3%), Florida (+10.1%), and Virginia (+9.3%), averaging higher farmgate milk prices than all other states. Meanwhile, the most intense contractions occurred in Minnesota (-10%), Wisconsin (-9.3%), and South Dakota (-1.9%). If the recovery trend continues in milk pricing, incentives to expand production could likely foster an additional expansion in the production of milk, primarily reducing culling activities and maintaining dairy cows longer in production.Overall, the milk production surplus in the US has spread unevenly across the different commodities in the dairy industry. As of May, milk was primarily allocated into the production of SMP (+7.4%), butter (+5.5%), and yogurt (+5.5%), while cheese production expanded at a more moderate pace (+2.7%). At the same time, production declined for milk protein concentrate (-17.7%) and WMP (-6.8%). While weather conditions were supportive during June, July observed conditions that could challenge the US milk production as the summer advances. A major heat wave developed in the last days of June and another in the middle of July, with temperatures from 5.6 to 8.3 degrees Celsius above normal. The abnormal heat conditions affected a large share of the country, including the Southwest, Midwest, and Greater Plains. The heat will likely continue in August, with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasting high probabilities of above-normal temperature for the beginning of the month.