Chinese imports maintain positive momentum in June

June has been a very strong month albeit with 5 out of 15 commodities booking losses. Notable volume decreases were observed in SMP, WPC80/WPI, Lactose, Yoghurt, and milk.June ImportsJune '25 June '26∆∆% SMP17.01515.102-1.913-11,24%WMP37.78747.96910.18226,95%Whey 40.65354.47113.81833,99%WPC80/WPI's3.1322.844-288-9,20%Casein1.3111.80249137,45%Caseinates1.9012.37147024,72%Lactose 14.00610.467-3.539-25,27%I/F18.26823.0534.78526,19%Cheese 15.74822.5766.82843,36%Butter8.7679.3245576,35%AMF2.2213.2361.01545,70%Cream20.61025.8365.22625,36%Yoghurt1.4651.283-182-12,42%Condensed1.0602.1691.109104,62%Milk35.15122.935-12.216-34,75%Extraordinary results were booked in WPC80/WPI imports that rose by 92,94% vs the previous year. Fat-based products remained popular too: WMP, Whey, Casein, Caseinates, I/F, Cheese, AMF, Cream, and Condensed that all saw double digit growth. June concluded with an increase in imports of 17,82%, or +212 million kgs LME, coming from 4,01% in May or 31 million kgs LME. June has been the fourth consecutive month of YoY growth.YTD June ImportsYTD June '25YTD June '26∆∆% SMP140.171111.990-28.181-20,10%WMP253.989281.29527.30610,75%Whey 328.032320.103-7.929-2,42%WPC80/WPI's17.53517.276-259-1,48%Casein8.41511.2542.83933,74%Caseinates12.29811.475-823-6,69%Lactose 83.02265.274-17.748-21,38%I/F105.373106.0106370,60%Cheese 97.432121.57924.14724,78%Butter58.95066.0287.07812,01%AMF23.07524.4361.3615,90%Cream140.618152.45911.8418,42%Yoghurt7.2195.324-1.895-26,25%Condensed6.6878.5701.88328,16%Milk185.294172.805-12.489-6,74%The cumulative performance through June has arrived in positive territory. Meanwhile, certain commodity segments such as SMP, Lactose, I/F, and Milk have lagged expectations and saw double digit declines. Overall, YTD June imports recorded a YoY increase of +0,10% or +219 million kgs LME, coming from -2,65% or -190 million kgs LME YTD May The pace of declines began to ease during the July–October ‘25 period, and by November and December ‘25 early signs of a shift in momentum started to appear. This positive reversal was confirmed in the first half of the year (January–June), while August saw the second year on year decline. But, while September and October regained positivity. November and December saw a decline again. June has been the fourth month in 2026 of yoy import growth. In China, economic conditions remain mixed. The labour market continues to be weighed down by persistently high unemployment levels. On the inflation front, however, the situation has been more dynamic. After trending downward since August, inflation briefly spiked in January before sliding into negative territory from February through May. June and July, have been positive but August and September marked a return to negatives again. In October, inflation has been positive again which continued through March which saw an inflation of 1% and both April and May recorded an inflation of 1.2% with June recording 1%. Apart from other Economic difficulties, there are also the Low domestic farm gate milk prices. Farm gate prices in June ’26 remained CNY 303/100 kgs, or EUR 38,82/100 kgs. Surplus milk production will in time translate to increased export activity, and the initial stages of this trend were becoming visible in the 2025 export data. Year-to-date June figures, however, have turned negative: exports moved from +138% (404 million kilograms LME) in December 2025, to -14,54% or -44 million kgs LME YTD May.YTD June ExportsYTD June '25YTD June '26∆∆%SMP4.3199.8275.508127,53%WMP25.40414.217-11.187-44,04%Whey45682036479,82%Casein4313996223,26%Caseinates66256190287,88%WPC90/WPI231291450,00%Lactose 360788428118,89%I/F3.6983.8941965,30%Cheese 763585-178-23,33%Butter4.541959-3.582-78,88%AMF6461.456810125,39%Yoghurt2.3572.011-346-14,68%Cream631013860,32%Fermented2.0162.25023411,61%Condensed66996529644,25%Milk16.75521.8605.10530,47%Shipments below 500 metric tons are most likely return consignments, but volumes exceeding this threshold could be an early indication of China’s potential shift toward becoming both a dairy importer and an exporter. Although lower than in 2025, the export performance by product category has remained striking. SMP exports surged by 128%, while also Liquids recorded impressive gains. Although these are early days, by the look of the past year performance, especially SMP, I/F, Butter and liquids would seem to point at China as a promising exporter.