Impact of bird flu in Poland is very limited

Where the number of bird flu infections on poultry farms in the Netherlands peaked in the winter period, it was different in Poland this spring. Polish poultry farms mainly faced a strong peak in the number of outbreaks in April and May. The number of reports of Newcastle disease also showed a peak in those months. Although a large number of parent stock has been culled and the production of hatching eggs is under pressure, this does not seem to significantly affect the broiler market this summer. The situation around bird flu deteriorated relatively late in the spring in Poland. While the number of outbreaks remained relatively limited in January and February, around 40 farms, that changed quickly in the following months. In April and May, almost 90 farms were affected in total. This is shown by figures from the Polish veterinary authority. The overview also shows that in this period quite a number of farms with parent stock were affected. This has a significant impact on the capacity for the production of hatching eggs. This is already visible in the number of day-old chicks produced for May. 1.2 million breeding hens culled in April and May In April and May, according to the Polish authority, about 16 farms with parent stock were culled, with a total of approximately 1.2 million animals. Assuming that most of these are broiler parent stock, this can mean a sharp decline in the number of hatching eggs produced. That this effect has occurred is shown by production figures from the Polish statistics office. While the year started with historically high production figures for day-old chicks, recent figures show a sharp decline. After a peak in March 2026 (152 million chicks), production fell to 140 million in April and more than 113 million in May. Still, it is not certain that broiler production will be significantly affected. The export of hatching eggs was also under pressure, insiders report. Production of day-old chicks in Poland (broilers) March April May Millions of units 152,5 133,0 113,7 Duration of impact unclear It is unclear how quickly affected poultry farmers can rebuild the parent stock population. It may take a longer period before culled parent stock is again available and in production in these numbers. The question is also to what extent the sector had already anticipated higher bird flu risks and can switch more quickly if there is additional loss of large numbers of parent stock. The number of day-old chicks produced in May in Poland was at the lowest level in years, if November is left out of consideration. Meanwhile, the broiler market has had somewhat more favourable conditions in recent weeks, according to Polish market agencies and Dutch market participants. Where first mainly the quotation for live chicks rose, carcass prices are now also showing an increase, at least in Poland. This is reported by market agency Ceny Rolnicze. The question, however, is whether this recovery is the result of the disease pressure this spring. Market participants instead point to the heat in Europe over the past month and strong consumption. As a result, meat growth was lower and out of home consumption was high, which supported the market. Insiders indicate that the number of culled parent stock in Poland is substantial, but that the export of hatching eggs also came under clear pressure this spring. Many hatching eggs have a destination in the Middle East. Unrest in this region led to a drop in demand and less export. These eggs can partly cover the shortage in Europe, is the thinking.