French potato processing hits record high despite quality concerns

Never before have so many potatoes been processed in France as during the 2025/26 season. An enormous potato surplus continues to dominate the market, but there is no sign of a slowdown in processing. This means France remains the strongest performer within the EU-4.All season long the French factories have outperformed those in many other countries. That is quite remarkable in a season dominated by negative market sentiment because of the enormous potato surplus. Frozen fries sales, particularly outside Europe, have declined sharply, but this has not resulted in lower frozen fries production. This can partly be explained by the large capacity expansion that has taken place there over the past three to five years.New recordThe 2025/26 season, running from July to June, totalled 1.938 million tonnes of potatoes processed. That is 19,000 tonnes more than in the previous season, a growth of 1%. This is enough to set a new record. The French potato industry has increased processing every year. Compared with the five-year average, the processed volume is no less than 68% larger.In June, 178,513 tonnes of potatoes were processed. That is over 7% more than a year ago and also considerably more than in May, when processing actually showed a substantial dip to 154,269 tonnes. Once again, very few open-market potatoes were processed: only 2,525 tonnes. At 33,690 tonnes, imports of potatoes remained at a high level.As a result, the total processed volume of imported potatoes has reached a record. The total amounted to 463,000 tonnes, 12% more than a season ago. These are thought to be largely potatoes contracted in Belgium. The share of open-market potatoes processed last season plunged, with 69% less volume processed. The total amounts to only 25,000 tonnes.Stores not emptyLast year the French industry had to deal with more than 8.5 million tonnes of ware potatoes. This was simply far too much. In 2024, 7.65 million tonnes were harvested and there was already an oversupply. The French potato growers organisation estimates that there is a surplus of more than one million tonnes this season. Not all of those potatoes have found a market yet. Stores are full or the potatoes are being ploughed back into the land, sold as animal feed or used for biofermentation. Meanwhile, the new harvest is approaching.It is clear that this year's harvest will turn out differently. According to UNPT figures, the area of ware potatoes has shrunk by 9.7% to 173,415 hectares. A decrease of 16,500 hectares, leaving the area still slightly above the 2024 level. In Nord-Pas-de-Calais the contraction is the largest, at 12%, according to UNPT. There, more than 7,500 hectares less were planted. This is also where by far the most fries potatoes are grown. In the Picardy region, the area has fallen by 4,800 hectares, representing a reduction of almost 9%. That movement is also visible in Champagne-Ardennes.The key question is how yields will develop. For weeks, reports have pointed to an unprecedented period of hot weather in the country. Northern France is holding up best, although it is also exceptionally dry and warm there. The situation is not yet disastrous, but if the weather continues over the coming weeks, that could quickly change. For a crop such as maize, a 30% lower yield is already being taken into account. For winter grains it is still manageable; there the yield is estimated to be 10% to 15% lower than last year.Yield back to normalFrench potato growers have enjoyed four years of relatively stable yields. In each of the past two years, yields averaged 40 tonnes per hectare. In the dry 2022 the average was 37.8 tonnes per hectare and in 2018 39.4 tonnes per hectare. The five-year average stands at 40.84 tonnes per hectare. That means last year's yields were not really unusual compared with the average. Conditions were dry for an extended period then as well. Yield 2025 Yield 2022 5-year average 7,075 6,544 7,071 Under all scenarios, the 2026 harvest is expected to be substantially smaller than last year's. In the scenario with the highest yield, it still concerns 1.471 million tonnes of potatoes. That is a decline of 17%. This would place the ware potato harvest between the 2023 and 2024 levels and supply and demand are much better balanced. Can old-crop prices recover?Until then, French potato growers will first have to weather the current market. That means saying goodbye to the old crop, or hoping for a late market recovery if drought persists. In France too, the area of early potatoes has been sharply reduced. If yields are very disappointing, there may still be demand for the remaining old-crop potatoes. There are no clear signs of that yet, partly because the impact of the weather is not yet clear, but this cannot be ruled out. Realistically, a temporary recovery also does not immediately lead to a double-digit price, given the large supply that still exists. It could, however, ensure that the old potatoes do not have to be disposed of at the growers' expense, and that is worth something to potato growers at the moment.