Chicago reacts more strongly to EU drought than Paris

On the Chicago exchange, wheat managed the upward path better than in Paris. Developments regarding drought in Europe and the diesel shortage in Russia are apparently making a greater impression in Chicago than here. The September contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €0.50 higher at €205 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat was rising somewhat more convincingly with a gain of 12 cents to $6.19¾ per bushel. Corn was down 3½ cents to $4.31½ per bushel. The biggest loser was the August soy contract, which closed 15½ cents lower at $11.77¾ per bushel. Where the rise in wheat on the CBoT comes from is a bit of a mystery for several analysts. Developments in the Black Sea region Russia probably play a role. The attacks on Russian oil refineries and the shadow fleet are causing major problems in the Russian fuel chain. It can hardly be otherwise than that Russian agriculture will also start to feel the consequences, various experts say. Traders and speculators are also partly anticipating the Wasde report that will be released tonight Dutch time. The expectation among analysts and traders in the Reuters poll is that the USDA will lower the yield forecast for wheat. The main reason for that is the drought on the American prairies. If we look at the latest drought monitor, we see that it is still dry in large parts of the wheat belt. Rain is forecast in the US in the coming days, but that precipitation will largely be confined to the southeast. Somewhat remarkably, analysts in the US are paying more attention to drought in the EU than is the case here. The Reuters poll shows that participants expect the USDA to put global ending stocks of wheat lower than in the June edition of the Wasde report. A smaller wheat harvest in the EU, including due to the heatwave at the end of June, plays a role in that according to experts. Looking at that, there should be some room to the upside for wheat, some experts say. China buys soy in the US China was in the market for soy from the US this week. The USDA announced earlier this week that China has bought 472.000 soy. That is the largest order from China since November 2025. This news clearly influenced the soy market this week, but by now you also hear comments that it is less spectacular than you might expect. In May, US President Trump and Chinese leader Xi agreed that China would buy more agricultural products from the US. What China has now bought is actually no more than you would expect based on the agreements made in May. An extra barrier for American soy is that China still applies an import duty of 10% for commercial parties. Without that duty, soy from Brazil is already very sharply priced relative to soy from the US. With that duty, North American soy is more expensive for Chinese commercial parties.