Oil market remarkably calm under tanker attacks

Oil is showing no signs of falling below $70 per barrel. But despite three new attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the price remains fairly stable. At the pump, prices seem only to be rising. Crude oil fell further in price a week ago, but in recent days the price has risen somewhat again. As a result, at the time of writing (Tuesday afternoon, July 7) a barrel of Brent oil at $72.93 costs almost as much as a week earlier. Yesterday a tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz and today United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), the authority in this area, reported two new missile attacks on ships in which damage occurred. These new attacks create uncertainty about the sustainability of the interim peace agreement, but for now the greater availability of oil is preventing prices from skyrocketing again. There is a lot of complaining that prices at the pump remain high while the Brent crude oil price has fallen. Prices at the pump react with a delay because oil was purchased earlier. Margin differences at refineries may also play a role. In addition, the value of the dollar plays a role in the price for the European consumer, because oil is settled in dollars. In mid-January 2025 you got just over $1 for €1, after which the dollar fell sharply in value. At the end of January this year, the value of €1 was almost $1.20. After that, the dollar strengthened considerably again. Since June 25, the euro has started rising again and as a result oil has become (slightly) cheaper for the eurozone again. Currently, one euro is worth $1.14. So, in contrast to the (over a week viewed) stable Brent price, a price increase has been seen at the pump over the past week. Last week, the National Advice Price that United Consumers tracks in the Netherlands (the price at filling stations can be favorable compared with this, especially if they are not located on the highway) was €2.45 per liter, today that price is €2.49. Diesel price The diesel price also shows an increase over the past week. On June 30 the LTO member price was €151.16 per 100 liters from 4,000 liters, on July 7 that is €157.48, an increase of 4.2%. Gas priceThe gas price rose last week from €43.44 to €46.45 per MWh, an increase of 6.9%. Today an increase was seen after the attack on a Qatari LNG tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. Although there is little demand for gas for heating, there is demand for cooling in both the US and Europe because of the heat. In addition, European gas reserves are lower than usual, according to data from GIE AGSI. Half is now filled, compared with more than 60% last year. In the Netherlands, less than 28% is filled, while last year it was more than 49%. Electricity priceLast Tuesday, the average day price for electricity peaked at €200.38 per MWh, but on the other days through today (July 7) the price was considerably lower, with the lowest at 62.49 on July 4.