Australian dairy exports contract in April despite milk output expansion

Australia’s dairy exports weakened in April, declining by 11.44%, or 25 million kilo LME. In terms of commodity volumes, exports fell by 8.81%, or 3,773 tons. Despite the overall decline, most product categories recorded higher export volumes, with the exceptions of SMP, WMP, butter, and milk. Australian dairy exports - April (tons) Product 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% SMP 11,516 9,469 -2,047 -17.78% WMP 4,763 3,293 -1,470 -30.86% Whey 1,574 1,630 56 3.56% I/F 1,284 1,424 140 10.90% Lactose 548 639 91 16.61% Butter 625 371 -254 -40.64% Butter Oil 315 358 43 13.65% Cheese 11,924 12,202 278 2.33% Milk 10,288 9,678 -610 -5.93% Total 42,837 39,064 -3,773 -8.81% Year-to-date (YTD) through April, export performance was slightly more positive, although still negative overall, with volumes down 7.16%, or 67 million kilo LME. In commodity terms, exports declined by 3.76%, or 7,078 tons. Most product categories posted lower export volumes during the period, with whey, infant formula (I/F), lactose, and milk being the only exceptions. Australian dairy exports - YTD April (tons) Product 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% SMP 51,693 50,966 -727 -1.41% WMP 18,005 11,212 -6,793 -37.73% Whey 6,115 6,717 602 9.84% I/F 4,676 4,699 23 0.49% Lactose 1,416 2,994 1,578 111.44% Butter 3,248 2,402 -846 -26.05% Butter Oil 1,600 1,151 -449 -28.06% Cheese 57,214 52,062 -5,152 -9.00% Milk 44,107 48,793 4,686 10.62% Total 188,074 180,996 -7,078 -3.76% Australian milk production has remained positive throughout the year, increasing by 2.21%, or 25 million kilo, YTD through April. Improved weather conditions across several dairy regions and stronger farm margins have continued to support milk flows. However, the development of El Niño could negatively affect production in the coming months. Milk production in Australia Month 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% January 708,200,000 718,800,000 10,600,000 1.50% February 572,400,000 575,600,000 3,200,000 0.56% March 595,900,000 612,300,000 16,400,000 2.75% April 594,000,000 618,300,000 24,300,000 4.09% Total 2,470,500,000 2,525,000,000 54,500,000 2.21% Despite stronger milk production, Australian dairy imports rose sharply in April, increasing by 28.10%, or 23 million kilo LME. In commodity terms, imports increased by 28.23%, or 4,001 tons. All product categories recorded higher import volumes except WMP. Australian dairy imports - April (tons) Product 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% SMP 1,070 1,224 154 14.39% WMP 3,111 2,750 -361 -11.60% Whey 675 689 14 2.07% Cheese 7,479 8,924 1,445 19.32% Butter 1,300 3,698 2,398 184.46% Butter Oil 536 887 351 65.49% Total 14,171 18,172 4,001 28.23% The YTD import data through April remained positive, with imports increasing by 11.85%, or 47 million kilo LME. In commodity terms, imports rose by 12.11%, or 8,265 tons. Most product categories recorded higher import volumes during the period, with the exceptions of SMP, WMP, and whey. Australian dairy imports - YTD April (tons) Product 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% SMP 4,169 3,955 -214 -5.13% WMP 12,594 12,583 -11 -0.09% Whey 2,463 2,165 -298 -12.10% Cheese 36,342 39,861 3,519 9.68% Butter 9,589 14,335 4,746 49.49% Butter Oil 3,104 3,627 523 16.85% Total 68,261 76,526 8,265 12.11% Overall, Australia appears to be on a positive trajectory in terms of milk production. However, export performance continues to lag despite the increased milk availability. The outlook for the remainder of the year will depend in part on whether El Niño develops as forecast and the extent of its impact on dairy production.