US leads the decline in global dairy futures

Following the weakness observed in previous weeks, the past week delivered a mostly negative outcome across the global dairy futures markets, with the US recording the weakest performance.On the CME, most contracts moved lower, apart from Whey C1 (up) and Whey C6 (unchanged). CONTRACT CME Product Contract 29/Jun 02/Jul ∆ ∆ % SMP July $3,709 $3,489 ↓ -5.93% August $3,637 $3,351 ↓ -7.86% September $3,605 $3,348 ↓ -7.13% October $3,577 $3,323 ↓ -7.09% November $3,565 $3,317 ↓ -6.96% December $3,544 $3,307 ↓ -6.69% Average $3,606 $3,356 ↓ -6.94% Butter July $3,764 $3,662 ↓ -2.71% August $3,871 $3,795 ↓ -1.96% September $3,924 $3,856 ↓ -1.74% October $4,023 $3,957 ↓ -1.63% November $4,071 $4,012 ↓ -1.45% December $4,056 $3,990 ↓ -1.63% Average $3,952 $3,879 ↓ -1.84% Whey July $1,439 $1,445 ↑ 0.42% August $1,477 $1,450 ↓ -1.87% September $1,519 $1,459 ↓ -3.92% October $1,521 $1,497 ↓ -1.59% November $1,521 $1,499 ↓ -1.45% December $1,521 $1,521 ↔ 0.00% Average $1,500 $1,478 ↓ -1.41% Block Cheese July $3,371 $3,344 ↓ -0.78% August $3,527 $3,457 ↓ -2.00% September $3,655 $3,596 ↓ -1.63% October $3,715 $3,673 ↓ -1.13% November $3,776 $3,761 ↓ -0.41% December $3,750 $3,748 ↓ -0.06% Average $3,632 $3,596 ↓ -0.99% Milk Class III July $34.59 $34.48 ↓ -0.32% August $36.35 $35.43 ↓ -2.55% September $37.87 $36.93 ↓ -2.50% October $38.51 $37.94 ↓ -1.49% November $39.35 $38.73 ↓ -1.57% December $38.87 $38.65 ↓ -0.57% Average $37.59 $37.03 ↓ -1.51% Milk Class IV July $42.04 $39.68 ↓ -5.61% August $41.47 $39.02 ↓ -5.90% September $41.69 $39.37 ↓ -5.55% October $42.00 $39.48 ↓ -5.98% November $42.04 $39.64 ↓ -5.72% December $41.64 $39.77 ↓ -4.50% Average $41.81 $39.50 ↓ -5.54% The CME spot market also weakened, with prices declining across all products except Whey (unchanged) and Cheddar Blocks (up). CME Spot market Product 29/Jun 02/Jul ∆ ∆ % Dry Whey $1,510 $1,510 ↔ 0.00% Cheese Blocks $3,136 $3,158 ↑ 0.70% Cheese Barrels $3,263 $3,252 ↓ -0.34% Butter $3,748 $3,610 ↓ -3.68% SMP $3,742 $3,318 ↓ -11.34% Following the more hesitant tone observed in the SGX futures market last week and the weaker results recorded at the recent GDT events, SGX dairy futures continued to reflect a more bearish sentiment during the past week. Most contracts declined, except for SMP C1 (up), AMF C2 and C3 (unchanged), AMF C4-C6 (up), and Butter C5 and C6 (unchanged). Milk contracts generally moved higher, except for the 2027 Milk contract, which declined. SGX Product Contract 29/Jun 02/Jul ∆ ∆ % WMP July $3,540 $3,500 ↓ -1.13% August $3,530 $3,480 ↓ -1.42% September $3,550 $3,500 ↓ -1.41% October $3,540 $3,525 ↓ -0.42% November $3,585 $3,540 ↓ -1.26% December $3,595 $3,580 ↓ -0.42% Average $3,557 $3,521 ↓ -1.01% SMP July $3,210 $3,265 ↑ 1.71% August $3,210 $3,175 ↓ -1.09% September $3,220 $3,180 ↓ -1.24% October $3,215 $3,195 ↓ -0.62% November $3,225 $3,220 ↓ -0.16% December $3,220 $3,240 ↑ 0.62% Average $3,217 $3,213 ↓ -0.13% AMF July $6,100 $6,095 ↓ -0.08% August $5,900 $5,900 ↔ 0.00% September $5,825 $5,825 ↔ 0.00% October $5,700 $5,755 ↑ 0.96% November $5,600 $5,675 ↑ 1.34% December $5,585 $5,675 ↑ 1.61% Average $5,785 $5,821 ↑ 0.62% Butter July $5,585 $5,500 ↓ -1.52% August $5,250 $5,215 ↓ -0.67% September $5,145 $5,110 ↓ -0.68% October $5,050 $5,015 ↓ -0.69% November $5,005 $5,005 ↔ 0.00% December $5,005 $5,005 ↔ 0.00% Average $5,173 $5,142 ↓ -0.61% Milk Sept '26 $9.78 $9.80 ↑ 0.20% Sept '27 $9.56 $9.53 ↓ -0.31% Sept '28 $9.60 $9.65 ↑ 0.52% The EEX presented a more balanced picture, with approximately half of the contracts moving higher. The main exceptions were SMP C1-C6, Whey C1, and Liquid Milk C1-C6, of which C2 remained unchanged. These developments highlight the current uncertainty in market direction. EEX in EUR Product Contract 29/Jun 02/Jul ∆ ∆ % SMP July €2,790 €2,698 ↓ -3.30% August €2,802 €2,729 ↓ -2.61% September €2,881 €2,746 ↓ -4.69% October €2,900 €2,750 ↓ -5.17% November €2,854 €2,800 ↓ -1.89% December €2,830 €2,803 ↓ -0.95% Average €2,843 €2,754 ↓ -3.11% Butter July €3,825 €3,913 ↑ 2.30% August €3,888 €4,033 ↑ 3.73% September €4,035 €4,163 ↑ 3.17% October €4,245 €4,293 ↑ 1.13% November €4,275 €4,400 ↑ 2.92% December €4,305 €4,468 ↑ 3.79% Average €4,096 €4,212 ↑ 2.84% Whey July €1,345 $1,338 ↓ -0.52% August €1,355 €1,374 ↑ 1.40% September €1,365 €1,394 ↑ 2.12% October €1,375 €1,401 ↑ 1.89% November €1,385 €1,395 ↑ 0.72% December €1,400 €1,500 ↑ 7.14% Average €1,371 €1,400 ↑ 2.15% Liq Milk July €38.90 €38.81 ↓ -0.23% August €38.75 €38.75 ↔ 0.00% September €39.37 €39.20 ↓ -0.43% October €39.98 €39.81 ↓ -0.43% November €40.99 €40.80 ↓ -0.46% December €41.65 €41.43 ↓ -0.53% Average €39.94 €39.80 ↓ -0.35% EEX in USD EEX in USD euro/Dollar 11422 11436 >> 0.12% Product Contract 29/Jun 02/Jul ∆ ∆ % SMP June $3,187 $3,085 ↓ -3.18% July $3,200 $3,121 ↓ -2.49% August $3,291 $3,140 ↓ -4.57% September $3,312 $3,145 ↓ -5.06% October $3,260 $3,202 ↓ -1.77% November $3,232 $3,206 ↓ -0.83% Average $3,247 $3,150 ↓ -2.99% Butter June $4,369 $4,475 ↑ 2.43% July $4,441 $4,612 ↑ 3.86% August $4,609 $4,761 ↑ 3.30% September $4,849 $4,909 ↑ 1.25% October $4,883 $5,032 ↑ 3.05% November $4,917 $5,110 ↑ 3.91% Average $4,678 $4,816 ↑ 2.96% Whey June $1,536 $1,530 ↓ -0.40% July $1,548 $1,571 ↑ 1.53% August $1,559 $1,594 ↑ 2.25% September $1,571 $1,602 ↑ 2.02% October $1,582 $1,595 ↑ 0.85% November $1,599 $1,715 ↑ 7.27% Average $1,566 $1,601 ↑ 2.28% Liq Milk June $44.43 $44.38 ↓ -0.11% July $44.26 $44.31 ↑ 0.12% August $44.97 $44.83 ↓ -0.31% September $45.67 $45.53 ↓ -0.30% October $46.82 $46.66 ↓ -0.34% November $47.57 $47.38 ↓ -0.41% Average $45.62 $45.52 ↓ -0.23% Comparing current prices with the final trading session of 2025 reveals a clear regional divergence. Overall, most commodities have moved higher since the beginning of the year. The principal exceptions are US whey across the CME markets and EU butter. Overall, New Zealand and the US continue to stand out as the strongest-performing regions among the three major dairy trading blocs. Region Product Change 3-7- '26 VS 26/12/'25 USA CME SMP 29.82% BUTTER 8.92% WHEY -0.51% CHEESE 5.53% MILK CLASS III 5.73% MILK CLASS IV 27.32% USA CME SPOT CALL MARKET WHEY -6.16% CHEDDAR BLOCKS 7.30% CHEDDAR BARRELS 5.36% BUTTER 16.76% SMP 27.54% NEW ZEALAND SGX WMP 11.77% SMP 25.68% AMF 7.79% BUTTER 5.62% MILK '26 8.29% MILK '27 17.65% MILK '28 12.87% EU EEX SMP 32.04% BUTTER -2.35% WHEY 32.48% LIQ MILK 0.13%