The heat is off both outside and in the wheat market

The extremely warm weather of last week provided support on the grain market. Now that the mercury has dropped somewhat to more normal temperatures, the market is reacting to that as well. Whether that is entirely justified remains to be seen, of course. In the US, almost half of the winter wheat has now been harvested, as the new Crop Progress report shows. The September wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €0.25 lower at €202.50 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat closed more sharply in the red, down 8¾ cent to $5.69½ per bushel. Corn gave up 10¾ cent on the Chicago exchange to $4.02 per bushel. Soybeans followed the grains and closed 17½ cent lower at $11.08¾ per bushel. The area with very warm air that we had to deal with in Western Europe last week has shifted a bit to the east. As the mercury falls, sentiment on the grain market is also declining. Under the influence of the warm and dry weather, the wheat price in France had risen a little too far compared with other regions, some analysts say. South Korea has tendered for wheat from the US because it is cheaper. Within Europe, Poland is the price leader with prices still below the US level. Fast winter barley harvest The warm weather has allowed farmers in France to give the winter barley harvest a significant boost. According to FranceAgriMer, 42% of the winter barley has been harvested compared with 14% in the five-year average. Hard figures on the yield are not yet available. Some local sources report that the quality of the harvested grain is good, but the yield is disappointing. LSEG reports that the first barley from the new harvest from France has been sold to China. Next week, four ships of around 60,000 will be loaded in Rouen. According to traders, more is still to come and between 400,000 and 800,000 tonnes of barley could be loaded this summer with China as destination. In recent years, China was the largest export market for French barley outside the EU. For the first time in two years, according to LSEG, the first shipment of French wheat is also scheduled for China. Almost halfway USDA has published the weekly Crop Progress report. Threshing of winter wheat in the US is still proceeding at a brisk pace. Of the total area, almost half, namely 48%, has been harvested compared with 39% this week in the five-year average. In Oklahoma, threshing is most advanced at 98%. The condition of winter wheat has not changed compared with last week, with 26% of the wheat rated good or excellent. Spring wheat is also continuing to grow, but is lagging somewhat behind the average. 32% of the area in the US is in ear compared with 34% in the five-year average. Of the spring wheat area, 59% is rated good or excellent compared with 54% last week and 53% this week last year. For spring barley, 52% receives the good or excellent rating compared with 49% last week. The condition of corn has deteriorated slightly. 67% is rated good or excellent compared with 68% last week. Last year at this time, 73% of US corn was rated good or excellent. 9% of US corn is in tassel compared with 6% last year at this time. Soybeans are also slightly ahead in growth, with 19% flowering this week compared with 15% last year. The condition of soybeans is unchanged compared with last week, with 55% of the area rated good or excellent. Figures Analysts and traders in the US are taking a cautious preliminary stance on the updated acreage and stock figures that USDA will publish tonight Dutch time. A Reuters poll shows that participants assume that wheat, corn and soybean stocks are larger than last June. Corn stocks in particular are likely to come out considerably larger. As for acreage, participants in the poll expect USDA to revise corn acreage slightly downward and soybean acreage upward compared with the March estimate. Hardly any changes are expected for wheat.