New Zealand dairy exports maintain strong momentum in May

The final month of the 2025/26 milk season recorded a significant increase in milk production, rising by 3.65%, or 36 million kilo of milk, compared to the previous year. Year-to-date (YTD) May milk production stands at +5.39%, equivalent to an increase of 456 million kilo. New Zealand milk production - Thousand tons Month 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% January 2,385 2,432 47 1.97% February 1,865 1,977 112 6.01% March 1,763 1,935 172 9.76% April 1,456 1,545 89 6.11% May 987 1,023 36 3.65% YTD May 8,456 8,912 456 5.39% Following export growth of 21.41% in April, May recorded another strong performance, with exports increasing by 22.66%, or 383 million kilo LME (Liquid Milk Equivalent). Most products recorded higher export volumes, with the exceptions of whey, acid casein, rennet casein, BMP, caseinates, lactose, infant formula, AMF, milk, and condensed milk. New Zealand dairy exports - May Product 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% WMP 99,502 143,057 43,555 43.77% SMP 30,047 38,161 8,114 27.00% BMP 2,882 4,904 2,022 70.16% Whey 1,235 911 -324 -26.23% Acid casein 4,119 4,003 -116 -2.82% Rennet Casein 2,262 1,310 -952 -42.09% Caseinates 2,504 3,607 1,103 44.05% WPI/WPC > 80% 2,458 2,601 143 5.82% Lactose 3,058 2,901 -157 -5.13% Infant Formula 8,707 7,459 -1,248 -14.33% Butter 21,591 26,813 5,222 24.19% AMF 23,536 17,418 -6,118 -25.99% Cheese 40,036 44,440 4,404 11.00% Milk 23,608 17,892 -5,716 -24.21% Condensed 2,490 1,427 -1,063 -42.69% Cream 18,684 18,895 211 1.13% Notably, each of the last three months has recorded export growth exceeding 20%.The cumulative performance through May closely mirrors the strong results recorded in May alone. However, unlike the single-month figures, the YTD performance also shows declines in BMP and cheese exports. As of May, cumulative export volumes are up by 10.17%, equivalent to an additional 963 million kilo LME compared to the previous year. New Zealand dairy exports - YTD May Product 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% WMP 604,991 723,339 118,348 19.56% SMP 207,186 220,793 13,607 6.57% BMP 15,493 14,300 -1,193 -7.70% Whey 6,313 6,891 578 9.16% Acid casein 16,158 14,749 -1,409 -8.72% Rennet Casein 9,086 8,341 -745 -8.20% Caseinates 13,931 12,937 -994 -7.14% WPI/WPC > 80% 10,378 11,905 1,527 14.71% Lactose 12,590 12,495 -95 -0.75% Infant Formula 42,963 34,921 -8,042 -18.72% Butter 123,362 134,681 11,319 9.18% AMF 89,524 85,420 -4,104 -4.58% Cheese 195,062 194,165 -897 -0.46% Milk 99,143 79,779 -19,364 -19.53% Condensed 11,957 13,821 1,864 15.59% Cream 93,292 108,776 15,484 16.60% Imports continued to show a mixed picture. While YTD May imports declined overall across the dairy categories, whey and cheese recorded notable increases in absolute import volumes. Overall, New Zealand dairy imports moderated from +12.42% in April to +6.93% in YTD May, equivalent to an increase of 26 million kilo LME. New Zealand dairy imports - YTD May Product 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% Whey 0404.10 3,694 4,814 1,120 30.32% Cheese 0406 3,967 6,377 2,410 60.75% Lactose 1702.11 & 19 43,268 44,098 830 1.92% Based on milk production, exports, and imports, theoretical stocks declined from 1.57 billion kilo LME at the start of the year to 963 million kilo LME by the end of May, representing a decrease of 38.56%. This is equivalent to 10.80% of New Zealand's YTD May 2026 milk production. Although this remains relatively high, it is largely the result of increased milk production. Nevertheless, export growth was nearly twice as large as the increase in milk production, helping to substantially reduce theoretical stock levels.