Weather remains the talking point in the grain market

It is code red because of the heat. After the weekend we should have had the worst of it for now according to the weather reports. However, it will remain relatively warm and especially dry weather. That can certainly still have consequences for yields in the later crops. In the US, and specifically the Midwest, warmer weather is forecast from the end of next week. That news gave grain prices on the Chicago exchange support. The September wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €2.50 lower at €206 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat moved up slightly by 5¼ cent to $5.91 per bushel. Maize was even more convincingly on the rise on the Chicago exchange, gaining 7¾ cent to $4.14¾ per bushel. Soybeans closed 18¾ cent higher at $11.27½ per bushel. Today we in the Netherlands have code red because of the warm weather. In the grain market, the news about the heat is wearing off a bit. That of course does not mean that the problems with the warm and dry weather have disappeared. The worst of the heat should be over here after the weekend, but according to the weather models we will have warm and especially dry weather in large parts of Europe. In France there are especially concerns about the later crops such as maize and sunflowers, which have taken a hit. Further north and in the central part of Europe, the warm dry weather is probably also costing wheat kilos, according to various analysts. The International Grains Council IGC has raised its forecast for the global wheat harvest in season 2026/27 by 1 million tonnes to 821 million tonnes. The adjustment is mainly due to a better yield expectation in Russia. The estimate for the global maize harvest has been raised by 10 million tonnes to 1.310 million tonnes. In Argentina and India, more maize is likely to be harvested than previously expected by the IGC. Total grain production is estimated at 2.426 million tonnes versus 2.488 million tonnes last season. Ending grain stocks are estimated at 618 million tonnes. That is 3% less than last season. The IGC mentions high fertilizer prices as a point of concern. The recent decline in fertilizer prices does provide some relief. The IGC also notes that the El Niño weather pattern is very likely to strengthen in the second half of the year. However, the impact of the weather phenomenon on agriculture and grain production remains uncertain. Warm weather on the rise in the US In the American Midwest the growing season is going reasonably smoothly with fairly cool weather and sufficient rainfall. That is likely to change in the coming period. For early July, the American weather service is forecasting warmer weather. That could have consequences especially for maize, and to a lesser extent soybeans. Those crops will be heading toward flowering by then. Really warm weather is therefore not favorable according to local sources. Football fans among you probably already noticed some of it yesterday evening, but on the southern prairies there are strong thunderstorms. Especially the winter wheat in Kansas and Nebraska that has not yet been threshed is at risk of damage from the storms.