DCA Benchmarks: Cheese commentary week 26

Cheese prices are under significant pressure this week, driven primarily by exceptionally weak demand. The extreme heat across parts of Europe is weighing on consumption, while the approaching holiday season is further slowing buying interest. A seasonal slowdown in cheese demand at this time of year had already been anticipated. However, sales are proving weaker than expected, resulting in a sharper decline in prices. The DCA benchmark for Gouda Foil drops by €205 this week to €3,005 per tonne. The last time such substantial weekly declines were recorded was in the autumn of 2025, when the wider dairy market experienced a sharp correction.Foil cheese prices below the €3,000 per tonne threshold have only occurred sporadically in recent years. Those levels are now once again within reach. Producers generally continue to offer prices above €3,000 per tonne, although lower prices can already be found in the spot market. Buyers remain hesitant, causing delivery lead times to increase. A large share of the available milk continues to be directed into cheese production, supported by the strong valorisation of whey. As a result, ample product availability is expected to persist in the coming weeks. This could lead to further downward pressure on prices, although the market has already undergone a substantial correction. MozzarellaOther cheese markets are also moving lower, albeit less sharply than the foil cheese market. The DCA benchmark for Mozzarella declines by €95 to €3,215 per tonne. Compared with Gouda, Mozzarella now appears relatively overvalued, although this is partly supported by a reasonably healthy seasonal demand. Nevertheless, the expectation is that the price gap between the two products will narrow over time. CheddarCheddar had recently been relatively undervalued compared with Gouda, but that difference is now widening again. The DCA benchmark for Cheddar Curd falls by €55 to €3,250 per tonne, a more modest decline than seen in the foil cheese market. Cheddar availability is described as normal to ample.