Grain market cautiously pricing in the hot weather

You can hardly ignore the warm weather if you follow the news at all. It is no different in the grain market. The area of warm weather is moving from France to other parts of Europe. As a result, concerns about the effects of the heat on crops are increasing. Donald Trump was once again active on social media yesterday. He linked developments in Iran to US agriculture. Markets were not really impressed by that, by the way. The September contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €1.75 higher at €207.75 per tonne. On the exchange in Chicago, the July wheat contract closed 1 cent lower at $5.85¾ per bushel. Corn gave up 2¾ cents and closed at $4.07 per bushel. Soybeans were the biggest loser on the Chicago exchange, down 8¼ cents to $11.08¾ per bushel. The heat in France is shifting a bit. Tomorrow North East Europe get the hottest day of the week and the area with high temperatures will move further into Central Europe. As the warm air moves, concerns also increase about the consequences for crops in Europe. Reports are now coming from France that 40 degrees was a bit too much for wheat and that the crop is ripening prematurely. For corn and sunflowers, there had already been concern for some time. Further north, wheat still needs to mature and it is likely that the heat will reduce yields. Moisture and temperature In the wheatbelt in the US, some rain fell this week. Parts of the wheatbelt will also be warm. Temperatures of 100 degrees Fahrenheit (about 38 degrees Celsius) are forecast in Texas and Kansas, among other places. In the cornbelt, in contrast to here, the weather is very favorable for crop growth. Above-average rainfall is forecast there until early July, along with above-average temperatures. A combination of favorable growing weather, a relatively strong dollar and lagging demand from China is cooling sentiment in US arable farming. A message from Donald Trump on his Truth Social platform made little impression. Trump addressed Iranian funds that may or may not have been or be released. According to Trump, that is absolutely not true. There is an urgent need for food in Iran, the US president writes. We will release some of their money, which is fully under our control, to our farmers and livestock producers for the purchase of corn, wheat, soybeans and more. SovEcon has lowered its forecast for the upcoming wheat harvest in Russia by 1.6% to 88.9 million tonnes. By comparison, in 2025 the total wheat harvest was 91.1 million tonnes. The downward revision is due to a smaller sown area, especially for spring wheat. Instead of 10.5 million hectares, 9.9 million hectares have been sown. The winter wheat area is unchanged at 15.9 million hectares according to SovEcon. With 25.8 million hectares in total, this is the smallest wheat area in Russia since 2014. In the south of Russia, the region that is strongly focused on wheat exports, production of 37.4 million tonnes is expected, compared with 31.9 million tonnes last year, SovEcon writes. That should improve export opportunities in the early season and, even with a smaller total harvest, could increase pressure on the global wheat market, writes Andrey Sizov, director of SovEcon. Egypt has interest in wheat from Poland Egypt, which gets about 85% of its total wheat imports from Ukraine and Russia, is seeking closer ties with Poland. Egypt is discussing the possibility of importing more wheat from Poland. This is part of efforts to diversify in terms of raw material suppliers and strengthen food security. Minister Sherif Farouk met with Polish deputy state secretary Małgorzata Gromadzka in Cairo to discuss cooperation in grains, meat and other food products, according to the Egyptian Ministry of Supply in a statement.