Poland's poultry sector caught between disease and competition

Poland reported more avian influenza outbreaks in the first half of 2026 than during the whole of 2025. Yet, poultry production expanded, with a widening gap between intra-EU and extra-EU poultry prices. At the same time, Brazil is gaining ground in key export destinations, while growing competition from Ukraine and China is putting additional pressure on European markets.According to the European Commission, the average EU whole broiler price reached €301.34 per 100 kg in week 24 of 2026, marking a decline of 1.2% year-over-year (YoY). Despite the avian influenza outbreaks observed across Europe in 2025, poultry prices have remained relatively stable, reflected by a low coefficient of variation of 3%. Nonetheless, this apparent stability masks differences across main producing countries. Prices increased in France (+2.8% YoY), Germany (+2%), and Italy (+3.1%).The decline in the EU average price mostly reflects developments in Poland, where prices fell by 13.3% YoY to €230.54 per 100 kg. The Polish market was also more volatile, with a coefficient of variation of 12.8%, reflecting its strong exposure to export markets. Prices peaked around the same period last year before entering a downward trend in early November 2025, reaching a low of €155.7 per 100 kg in week 50. Since then, prices have fluctuated considerably and partially recovered, increasing by 33.2% over the last weeks.Polish production remains resilient despite disease pressureEuropean poultry production totaled 14.31 million tons in 2025, an increase of 3.2% YoY. Chicken accounted for 85% of the total output, followed by turkey (11%) and duck (2%). Production followed a similar trend in the first two months of 2026, increasing by 3.5% YoY to 2.2 million tons.The increase was primarily driven by Poland, the largest poultry producer in the EU, where output rose by 12.6% YTD to 525 thousand tons. Spain also reported higher production, reaching 322 thousand tons (+4.9%). Meanwhile, other major producing countries reported lower levels: France (-5.5%), Germany (-5%), Italy (-4.3%), and the Netherlands (-3.5%).Polish production is increasing despite growing disease pressure. In 2025, Poland reported 128 outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), compared to 50 in 2024, while producers also faced outbreaks of Newcastle disease. Nonetheless, the impact on production remained limited, with total poultry slaughter reaching 1.30 billion birds, only 1.1% below the previous year. By June 2026, HPAI outbreaks had already exceeded the total reported in 2025, affecting more than 9.7 million birds. Despite these challenges, production continued to expand, with traders attributing part of this resilience to the recovery in breeding egg availability.Poland's export prices divergeIn 2025, the EU maintained a relatively balanced poultry trade. Intra-EU exports increased by 4.3% to 5.18 million tons, while extra-EU exports declined by 2.6% to 2.07 million tons and imports remained broadly stable at 493,969 tons. The trend continued in Q1 2026, with extra-EU exports totaling 406,714 tons (-1.9%) and imports reaching 106,860 tons. However, trade flows by origin shifted, with imports from Brazil rising by 52% to 42,570 tons, while volumes from the United Kingdom declined by 39.9%.Poland remained the largest poultry exporter in the EU in 2025. Export volumes declined by 1.9% to 1.77 million tons, while export value increased by 18.6%. However, the divergence between intra and extra-EU trade was particularly notable. Intra-EU exports increased by 2.9% in volume and 25.9% in value, with an average export price of $3.53 per kilo. Meanwhile, extra-EU exports declined by 10.1% to 599,897 tons and by 1.2% in value, with prices at $1.99 per kilo, substantially below the levels observed within the European market.The trend continued in the first quarter of 2026, with the average extra-EU export price declining to $1.83 per kilo, suggesting that Polish suppliers are increasingly competing on price to defend market shares. Poland's main destinations outside the EU included Congo (+17%), Vietnam (+5.2%), and the Philippines (+83%), while exports to Ghana declined by 10.1%.Brazil intensifies competition in export marketsBrazil remains the world's largest poultry exporter and competes directly with both Polish and European poultry. In 2025, Brazilian poultry exports were priced at an average of $1.78 per kilo, remaining below EU and Polish export prices. Nonetheless, the gap narrowed in early 2026, with Polish extra-EU export prices declining to $1.76 per kilo in March, improving the country's competitiveness.Competition with Poland is particularly visible in shipment destinations. Between January and May 2026, Brazil exported 1.80 million tons of poultry meat, mainly to China, Japan, and the United Arab Emirates. At the same time, Brazil continued to expand shipments to markets that are also important destinations for Polish poultry, including the Philippines (+13.9%), Ghana (+70.6%), and Congo (+28.7%).OutlookPoultry is expected to remain one of the most competitive animal proteins globally, supported by strong consumer demand and high beef prices. According to Rabobank, global poultry consumption is projected to grow by 2.5% to 3% in 2026, following a strong increase of 3.5% in the previous year. Nonetheless, animal diseases remain the most significant biological risk for the sector, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could increase feed costs and affect consumer purchasing power.Within Europe, Poland remains the key driver of growth. Production continued to expand despite increasing disease pressure, while its export-oriented structure leaves prices highly exposed to disease outbreaks, trade restrictions, and changes in international demand. Lower Polish prices have improved competitiveness in third-country markets and narrowed the gap with Brazilian poultry.Meanwhile, international suppliers such as Brazil, Ukraine, Thailand, and China continue to increase competition. Brazil remains the main competitor, benefiting from a cost advantage estimated at around 30% compared to European producers and expanding its presence in markets that are also important for Polish poultry. The proposed EU-Mercosur agreement could further increase pressure by allowing an additional 180,000 tons of South American poultry to enter the EU, while discussions continue regarding antimicrobial compliance in Brazil and market access. Growing imports from Ukraine and increasing exports from China add further competitive pressure both intra and extra-EU. Despite these, opportunities remain, particularly in Asian markets. The industry has been expanding its presence in countries such as South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, and Indonesia, where stronger demand could help reduce dependence on the European market. Looking ahead, market performance will increasingly depend on competitiveness, trade access, and international demand. While disease outbreaks remain a significant risk, competition is becoming more important for market dynamics. Demand fundamentals remain favorable, but producers should expect a more competitive and volatile environment.