US milk output continues to grow in May despite slowdown

US milk production continued its expansion in May. Growth remained concentrated in a handful of states, with Kansas posting an exceptional increase and reinforcing the increasing importance of the Great Plains in the national dairy sector. Rising herd sizes remained the main driver of production growth, while productivity per cow also showed modest improvements. Meanwhile, improving milk prices and a recovering milk-to-feed ratio are signaling a more favorable environment for further production expansion despite signs of slowing growth momentum.The 24 selected states of the United States (US) observed a consistent growth in milk output in May, with milk production expanding by 2.4% compared to the previous year to 8.97 million tons.Within the 24-selected states, the largest contributor to the monthly growth was Kansas, up by 21.2% or 40,370 tons more than the previous year. Other important contributors were Wisconsin (+2.3%), Texas (+4%), and Idaho (+2.9%). Only five states posted declines: Pennsylvania (-1.9%), Washington (-0.8%), Vermont (-0.8%), New Mexico (-0.4%), and Virginia (-0.8%).This monthly performance also reflects a broader structural shift in US milk production, where growth is increasingly concentrated in a smaller number of large-producing states, including Kansas, Texas, Idaho, and Wisconsin. The sharp increase in Kansas underlines the increasingly relevant role of the Great Plains in the US dairy landscape. This aligns with a structural trend of production moving toward regions with bigger herds, processing investment, and stronger capacity for output growth, with Kansas and South Dakota as the most dynamic states.The growing milk volumes in the US have been supported by a notable increase in the number of animals, up by 2% to 9.23 million heads, albeit a marginal 0.4% improvement in productivity per cow. In consequence, the states posting the highest output increases coincided with the highest herd growth, such as Kansas (+20.3%), Wisconsin (+2.3%), and Texas (+4%). Despite its marginal relevance, yields per animal increased across every state, except for New York, where yields declined by 0.2%. This implies that, although most of the growth is driven by the number of animals, yields are also remaining robust.The strong monthly performance resulted from a strong performance of the dairy sector across the year, with cumulative production increasing by 2.9% over the previous year to 43.2 million tons through April. Yet, growth has increasingly slowed down throughout the year, with January observing a 3.6% year-on-year growth and 2.8% in April, marking a decelerating trend amid the expanding production.At the same time, prices are shifting toward a more favorable environment for production. Farm gate milk prices averaged $20.8 per hundredweight (cwt) in April, marking a 1.4% decline over the previous year but increased by 5.6% over the previous month. Moreover, the price gap narrowed notably from a 10.5% decline in March. The overall increase in milk prices represents an improvement in farm profits, with the milk-to-feed price ratio shifting from a strong decline in March (-8.2% YoY) to relative stability in April (-0.9% YoY). These developments signal an increasingly favorable environment for farmers to expand production, potentially offsetting the slowdown in production growth in the next months.