China's dairy imports increased for the third consecutive month

May was a positive month for Chinese dairy imports, although 9 of the 15 monitored commodity categories recorded year-on-year declines in volume. The most significant decreases were observed in SMP, casein, infant formula, and yoghurt.One of the most remarkable developments was the performance of WPC80/WPI imports, which surged by 92.9% compared with the previous year. Fat-based products also remained in strong demand, with both butter and AMF recording double-digit growth. Chinese dairy imports - May Product 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% SMP 19,471 18,340 -1,131 -5.81% WMP 30,733 36,054 5,321 17.31% Whey 51,207 51,583 376 0.73% WPC80/WPI's 2,719 5,246 2,527 92.94% Casein 1,642 1,061 -581 -35.38% Caseinates 1,812 1,734 -78 -4.30% Lactose 14,102 13,821 -281 -1.99% I/F 18,989 16,111 -2,878 -15.16% Cheese 18,340 16,909 -1,431 -7.80% Butter 7,603 10,514 2,911 38.29% AMF 2,546 5,083 2,537 99.65% Cream 29,630 27,660 -1,970 -6.65% Yoghurt 1,320 973 -347 -26.29% Condensed 1,410 1,632 222 15.74% Milk 33,659 28,489 -5,170 -15.36% May concluded with an increase in dairy imports of 4.0%, equivalent to 51 million kilos LME, compared with growth of 13.6%, or 191 million kilos LME, recorded in April. This marks the third consecutive month of year-on-year import growth in 2026.Despite this improvement, cumulative import performance through May remained negative, although the decline was less pronounced than in previous months. Several commodity segments continued to underperform, including SMP, whey, caseinates, lactose, infant formula, yoghurt, and liquid milk. Chinese dairy imports - YTD May Product 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% SMP 123,156 96,888 -26,268 -21.33% WMP 216,212 233,327 17,115 7.92% Whey 287,381 265,632 -21,749 -7.57% WPC80/WPI's 14,403 16,432 2,029 14.09% Casein 7,277 9,452 2,175 29.89% Caseinates 10,460 9,104 -1,356 -12.96% Lactose 69,019 55,210 -13,809 -20.01% I/F 87,105 82,960 -4,145 -4.76% Cheese 81,684 99,003 17,319 21.20% Butter 50,183 56,704 6,521 12.99% AMF 18,854 21,200 2,346 12.44% Cream 125,383 126,624 1,241 0.99% Yoghurt 4,848 4,200 -648 -13.37% Condensed 3,658 6,400 2,742 74.96% Milk 156,736 149,914 -6,822 -4.35% Overall, year-to-date imports through May declined by 2.7% year on year, equivalent to 190 million kilos LME. This compares with a decline of 3.7%, or 218 million kilos LME, reported through April.The pace of import declines began to moderate between July and October 2024, with the first signs of improving momentum emerging in November and December. This positive trend was confirmed during the first half of 2025. Although August recorded a year-on-year decline, imports returned to growth in September and October before weakening again in November and December. In 2026, May became the third consecutive month of year-on-year import growth.China's economic environment remains mixed. The labour market continues to face challenges, with unemployment remaining relatively elevated. Inflation dynamics have also been volatile. After trending downward from August onwards, inflation briefly accelerated in January before falling into negative territory between February and May. June and July returned to positive levels, but inflation turned negative again in August and September. Inflation moved back into positive territory in October and remained positive through March, when it reached 1.0%. Both April and May recorded inflation of 1.2%.In addition to broader economic challenges, low domestic milk prices continue to weigh on the dairy sector. Farmgate milk prices in May 2026 remained at CNY 302 per 100 kilos, equivalent to approximately EUR 38 per 100 kilos.Persistent milk surpluses are expected to translate into higher export activity over time, and the first indications of this trend became visible during 2025. However, year-to-date figures through May have turned negative. Export growth has shifted from +138%, equivalent to 404 million kilos LME in December 2025, to -19.0%, or -46 million kilos LME, through May 2026. Chinese dairy exports - YTD May Product 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% SMP 2,805 5,742 2,937 104.71% WMP 20,189 11,593 -8,596 -42.58% Whey 412 681 269 65.29% Casein 34 110 76 223.53% Caseinates 59 247 188 318.64% WPC90/WPI 2 24 22 1100.00% Lactose 288 634 346 120.14% I/F 3,175 3,354 179 5.64% Cheese 851 623 -228 -26.79% Butter 4,062 814 -3,248 -79.96% AMF 598 1,140 542 90.64% Yoghurt 1,930 1,607 -323 -16.74% Cream 53 88 35 66.04% Fermented 1,613 1,830 217 13.45% Condensed 541 965 424 78.37% Milk 13,810 18,129 4,319 31.27% Export shipments below 500 tons are likely to represent return consignments. Volumes exceeding this threshold, however, may provide an early indication that China is gradually evolving into both a major dairy importer and exporter.Although export volumes are lower than in 2025, performance by product category remains noteworthy. SMP exports increased by 105%, while liquid dairy products also recorded impressive gains.While it remains too early to draw firm conclusions, developments over the past year suggest that SMP, infant formula, butter, and liquid dairy products could position China as an increasingly important dairy exporter in the coming years.