Bearish sentiment persists in future markets

Following the weakness observed in previous weeks, last week's Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction exerted further downward pressure on dairy prices across global exchanges.Due to a national holiday in the US, the CME was closed on Friday. The prices reported below therefore reflect trading on Thursday, 18 July. Most contracts declined, with the exceptions of SMP C1, Whey C3, Cheese C1, and Milk Class III C1, which all moved higher. Whey C4 and C6 remained unchanged. CONTRACT CME Product Month 15/Jun 18/Jun ∆ ∆ % SMP June $4,161 $4,200 ↑ 0.93% July $3,627 $3,503 ↓ -3.40% August $3,351 $3,302 ↓ -1.45% September $3,328 $3,290 ↓ -1.13% October $3,327 $3,284 ↓ -1.31% November $3,329 $3,268 ↓ -1.84% Average $3,521 $3,475 ↓ -1.30% Butter June $3,675 $3,649 ↓ -0.72% July $3,700 $3,577 ↓ -3.32% August $3,770 $3,640 ↓ -3.44% September $3,841 $3,713 ↓ -3.34% October $3,972 $3,792 ↓ -4.52% November $4,012 $3,847 ↓ -4.12% Average $3,828 $3,703 ↓ -3.28% Whey June $1,516 $1,499 ↓ -1.15% July $1,434 $1,423 ↓ -0.77% August $1,466 $1,477 ↑ 0.75% September $1,488 $1,488 ↔ 0.00% October $1,521 $1,516 ↓ -0.36% November $1,521 $1,521 ↔ 0.00% Average $1,491 $1,487 ↓ -0.26% Block Cheese June $3,441 $3,463 ↑ 0.64% July $3,534 $3,501 ↓ -0.94% August $3,578 $3,549 ↓ -0.80% September $3,682 $3,649 ↓ -0.90% October $3,805 $3,752 ↓ -1.39% November $3,858 $3,816 ↓ -1.09% Average $3,650 $3,622 ↓ -0.77% Milk Class III June $35.25 $35.43 ↑ 0.50% July $36.22 $35.74 ↓ -1.34% August $36.90 $36.66 ↓ -0.66% September $38.14 $37.83 ↓ -0.81% October $39.37 $38.91 ↓ -1.18% November $40.04 $39.55 ↓ -1.21% Average $37.65 $37.35 ↓ -0.80% Milk Class IV June $45.83 $45.77 ↓ -0.14% July $41.09 $39.46 ↓ -3.97% August $38.98 $37.92 ↓ -2.71% September $39.04 $38.36 ↓ -1.75% October $39.33 $38.27 ↓ -2.69% November $39.68 $38.47 ↓ -3.06% Average $40.66 $39.71 ↓ -2.34% In the CME spot market, Cheese Barrels increased, while all other products posted losses. CME Spot market Product 15/Jun 18/Jun ∆ ∆ % Dry Whey $1,516 $1,499 ↓ -1.09% Cheese Blocks $3,252 $3,197 ↓ -1.69% Cheese Barrels $3,131 $3,219 ↑ 2.82% Butter $3,582 $3,428 ↓ -4.31% SMP $3,847 $3,616 ↓ -6.02% Following the more cautious tone observed in SGX dairy futures markets during the previous week, combined with the negative GDT outcome, sentiment remained bearish. Most SGX dairy futures contracts moved lower, with gains limited to WMP C4 and C6 and Milk '28. SGX Product Month 15/Jun 18/Jun ∆ ∆ % WMP July $3,535 $3,505 ↓ -0.85% August $3,535 $3,495 ↓ -1.13% September $3,510 $3,495 ↓ -0.43% October $3,490 $3,500 ↑ 0.29% November $3,505 $3,500 ↓ -0.14% December $3,535 $3,600 ↑ 1.84% Average $3,518 $3,516 ↓ -0.07% SMP July $3,255 $3,220 ↓ -1.08% August $3,200 $3,115 ↓ -2.66% September $3,175 $3,085 ↓ -2.83% October $3,140 $3,080 ↓ -1.91% November $3,155 $3,105 ↓ -1.58% December $3,200 $3,150 ↓ -1.56% Average $3,188 $3,126 ↓ -1.93% AMF July $6,350 $6,200 ↓ -2.36% August $6,250 $6,000 ↓ -4.00% September $6,025 $5,825 ↓ -3.32% October $5,850 $5,725 ↓ -2.14% November $5,775 $5,675 ↓ -1.73% December $5,775 $5,675 ↓ -1.73% Average $6,004 $5,850 ↓ -2.57% Butter July $5,700 $5,675 ↓ -0.44% August $5,475 $5,325 ↓ -2.74% September $5,425 $5,225 ↓ -3.69% October $5,225 $5,150 ↓ -1.44% November $5,210 $5,125 ↓ -1.63% December $5,210 $5,125 ↓ -1.63% Average $5,374 $5,271 ↓ -1.92% Milk Sept '26 $9.80 $9.78 ↓ -0.20% Sept '27 $9.55 $9.47 ↓ -0.84% Sept '28 $9.45 $9.46 ↑ 0.11% The EEX also experienced predominantly negative price movements during the week. The main exceptions were Butter C1 and C2, as well as Liquid Milk C1, which remained relatively firm. EEX in EUR Product Month 15/Jun 18/Jun ∆ ∆ % SMP June €2,800 €2,800 ↔ 0.00% July €2,685 €2,555 ↓ -4.84% August €2,690 €2,565 ↓ -4.65% September €2,690 €2,575 ↓ -4.28% October €2,700 €2,610 ↓ -3.33% November €2,700 €2,609 ↓ -3.37% Average €2,711 €2,619 ↓ -3.39% Butter June €3,965 €3,965 ↔ 0.00% July €4,040 €3,905 ↓ -3.34% August €4,000 €3,950 ↓ -1.25% September €4,165 €3,995 ↓ -4.08% October €4,225 €4,175 ↓ -1.18% November €4,325 €4,215 ↓ -2.54% Average €4,120 €4,034 ↓ -2.08% Whey June €1,470 $1,445 ↓ -1.70% July €1,470 €1,450 ↓ -1.36% August €1,485 €1,440 ↓ -3.03% September €1,500 €1,430 ↓ -4.67% October €1,485 €1,425 ↓ -4.04% November €1,475 €1,415 ↓ -4.07% Average €1,481 €1,434 ↓ -3.15% Liq Milk June €38.33 €38.29 ↓ -0.10% July €38.90 €38.90 ↔ 0.00% August €38.91 €38.75 ↓ -0.41% September €39.76 €39.37 ↓ -0.98% October €40.42 €39.98 ↓ -1.09% November €41.39 €40.99 ↓ -0.97% Average €39.62 €39.38 ↓ -0.60% EEX in US dollars EEX in USD euro/Dollar 11590 11471 >> -1.03% Product Month 15/Jun 18/Jun ∆ ∆ % SMP June $3,212 $3,239 ↑ 0.85% July $3,109 $3,106 ↓ -0.09% August $3,114 $3,112 ↓ -0.09% September $3,120 $3,112 ↓ -0.27% October $3,143 $3,123 ↓ -0.63% November $3,143 $3,123 ↓ -0.63% Average $3,140 $3,136 ↓ -0.14% Butter June $4,595 $4,548 ↓ -1.03% July $4,682 $4,479 ↓ -4.33% August $4,636 $4,531 ↓ -2.26% September $4,827 $4,583 ↓ -5.07% October $4,897 $4,789 ↓ -2.20% November $5,013 $4,835 ↓ -3.54% Average $4,775 $4,628 ↓ -3.09% Whey June $1,704 $1,658 ↓ -2.71% July $1,704 $1,663 ↓ -2.37% August $1,721 $1,652 ↓ -4.03% September $1,739 $1,640 ↓ -5.65% October $1,721 $1,635 ↓ -5.03% November $1,710 $1,623 ↓ -5.05% Average $1,716 $1,645 ↓ -4.15% Liq Milk June $44.42 $43.92 ↓ -1.13% July $45.09 $44.62 ↓ -1.03% August $45.10 $44.45 ↓ -1.43% September $46.08 $45.16 ↓ -2.00% October $46.85 $45.86 ↓ -2.10% November $47.97 $47.02 ↓ -1.98% Average $45.92 $45.17 ↓ -1.62% Comparing current market performance with the final trading session of 2025 reveals a notable divergence between regions. In general, most commodities have recorded gains since year-end. The main exceptions are US whey on the CME spot market, as well as butter and liquid milk contracts on the EEX. Overall, New Zealand and the US have been the strongest-performing regions among the three major dairy trading blocs. Region Product Change 19-6- '26 VS 26/12/'25 USA CME SMP 34.41% BUTTER 3.99% WHEY 0.08% CHEESE 6.27% MILK CLASS III 6.66% MILK CLASS IV 28.01% USA CME SPOT CALL MARKET WHEY -6.85% CHEDDAR BLOCKS 8.61% CHEDDAR BARRELS 4.29% BUTTER 10.87% SMP 38.98% NEW ZEALAND SGX WMP 11.61% SMP 22.29% AMF 8.33% BUTTER 8.28% MILK '26 8.07% MILK '27 16.91% MILK '28 10.64% EU EEX SMP 25.55% BUTTER -6.46% WHEY 35.68% LIQ MILK -0.93%