Trade estimates Europe's grain harvest above average

Concerns about grain exports from Ukraine gave the market some support. It is just not really convincing. Coceral's yield estimate once again made it clear where the doubt lies. Wheat in Europe is generally in good condition. Records like last year will not be broken, but the organization does expect an above-average harvest. In the US, traders took a position ahead of the new Wasde report, which will mainly provide direction for corn and soybeans. The September wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €1.75 higher at €203.75 per tonne. Wheat also rose on the CBoT, up 2¼ cent to $5.87½ per bushel. Corn took a small step back and lost half a cent, ending at $4.19 per bushel. Soybeans gained 9¼ cent in the past trading session to $11.23 per bushel. Coceral, the European trade association for grain and oilseed traders, estimates total grain production in the EU plus the UK at 295.5 million tonnes. In the previous forecast from March, Coceral still expected a harvest of 298.8 million tonnes. Compared with last year, the grain harvest is 5.1% lower. In 2025, 311.3 million tonnes of grain were harvested. The wheat harvest is estimated at 143.7 million tonnes, against 142.6 million tonnes in the March forecast. Last year the wheat harvest was 150.8 million tonnes. Yields were exceptional in 2025, Coceral writes. For this year, however, the organization does not expect yields to fall below the multi-year average. In France, the recent heat has no effect on yield potential according to Coceral. In Germany, wheat is simply in good condition, and farmers in the Balkans can probably look forward to another year of exceptional yields. The harvest estimate for barley has been cut by 500,000 tonnes compared with March to 58.8 million tonnes. Last year, 63.8 million tonnes of barley were threshed. Corn is falling out of favor in Europe Corn is losing popularity among growers, Coceral notes. Yields should be higher this year than in 2025, when drought characterized the growing season. In recent years, corn yields have repeatedly disappointed. Growers are therefore looking for alternatives in other crops. Sunflowers in particular are a popular alternative. The corn harvest is estimated at 57.2 million tonnes, against 60.2 million tonnes in the previous estimate and 57.8 million tonnes last year. Corn acreage at 7.8 million hectares is 600,000 hectares lower than in 2025. Compared with ten years ago, around 15% less corn is grown in the EU. In Ukraine, the largest growers' association UAC raised the alarm over the damage caused by Russian missiles and drones. Grain terminals on the Black Sea are being targeted and the attacks have caused considerable damage. The export of essential agricultural products is therefore at risk, warns the UAC. In the US, analysts and traders are looking ahead to the June edition of the Wasde report, which will be published tonight Dutch time. For both production and stocks of wheat, corn and soybeans in the US, participants in the Reuters survey do not expect major changes compared with the May edition of the Wasde report. A higher corn harvest in Argentina is expected, however. The USDA estimated 59 million tonnes in May, and participants in the Reuters poll expect an estimate of 61 million tonnes in June. Trump makes little impression US President Trump spoke out again about Iran. Trump warned that Iran must 'pay a price' for delaying the peace negotiations. The president also threatened to hit Iran hard. You would expect the oil market to react to this, but it barely did. Although oil therefore remains fairly expensive, this has only a limited effect on demand for corn and soybean oil for biofuels. Last week, 326 million gallons of ethanol were produced in the US, meaning production is 1% lower than this time last year. According to some analysts, corn consumption for ethanol production is too low for the USDA forecast to come true. The USDA predicted that 5.6 billion bushels of corn would be used for ethanol. Soybean oil consumption for biodiesel is also lagging behind the USDA forecast. A sharp rise in the price of environmental certificates (D4 RIN) is helping to keep margins on biodiesel and diesel healthy for producers.