European pork exports close to lowest level in years

European pork exports were significantly lower in the first quarter of 2026 than in the same period a year earlier. Dutch exports in particular saw a sharp decline, but also Spanish exports were down considerably. African swine fever (ASF) in Asia has kept the damage somewhat limited, but this also highlights just how vulnerable the situation is.European pork exports in the first quarter of 2026 approached the recent low point of 2024. With a difference of just 866 tonnes, the difference between the two years is negligible, at less than one hundredth of a percent, in favour of the current year. In 2024, exports in that quarter reached their lowest point since 2015. Compared with 2025, exports in this period fell by 4.9%, from 1,121,714 tonnes to 1,066,379 tonnes.Spanish exports fell by 15.9% in the first three months of the year, from 384,623 tonnes in 2025 to 323,591 tonnes this year. Denmark, as the second-largest player, performed considerably better. The country saw exports rise by 8.5% to 176,790 tonnes. This means the country overtakes the Netherlands as the second-largest exporter in the European Union. Even more notable is Germany’s success. The country’s exports increased by as much as 51.8% to 99,497 tonnes. This is the result, on the one hand, of stronger production, but also of structurally declining domestic consumption. France also exported more, although growth was more limited. Exports rose by 8.8% to 79,527 tonnes.Dutch exports fell so sharply that the country’s lower exports, despite the steep declines in Spain, make it an outlier within the top five. The country struggled to connect with export markets and saw exports fall by as much as 39.7% to 108,327 tonnes. This is partly due to lower pork availability as a result of the LBV+ cessation scheme, but at the same time the Netherlands also struggled to stay ahead of competition from neighbouring countries.Exports to China remain a bottleneck The weak result remains largely attributable to weak exports to China. Exports to China reached their lowest level since 2014 in the first quarter of 2026. Compared with the same period in the even weaker year of 2024, exports to the Asian powerhouse fell by 9.7%, from 83,028 tonnes to 76,006 tonnes. This somewhat qualifies the weak European export performance and shows that the European Union is still heavily dependent on China, although we have achieved some diversification since then.ASF in Asia helps Exports to the second-most important market, the United Kingdom, are also declining. Shipments fell by 8.9%, from 207,488 tonnes in the first quarter of 2025 to 188,993 tonnes. The country saw its own production rise sharply at the beginning of the year, reducing demand for foreign meat. Meanwhile, exports to South Korea increased significantly. The country is demanding considerably more due to an outbreak of African swine fever (ASF). As a result of the outbreak, the country was forced to seize all available import opportunities, making imports from all major markets necessary.A similar situation is also playing out in the Philippines and Vietnam. Exports to Vietnam rose by 53.5% to 39,514 tonnes due to increasing disease pressure. Shipments to the Philippines had increased sharply in recent years, but this year exports to the country fell by 28.6% to 66,681 tonnes. This brought exports to their lowest level since 2020. On the one hand, the country is bringing the animal disease situation somewhat better under control, but more importantly, it has successfully shifted imports to Brazil and the United States, which were clearly offering lower prices during this period. Risk Although the European Union has become better at diversifying exports in recent years, the lower level of shipments still represents a significant vulnerability. To a large extent, the successful attempt to redirect exports is the result of swine fever. Should that situation stabilise, exports to the affected countries will slowly but surely decline, just as we previously saw in China, as is already visible in the Philippines. Moreover, competitive pressure remains strong. Pork exports from the United States and Brazil continued to rise over the same period. The United States saw export growth of 3% in the first quarter. In absolute figures, exports amounted to 778,939 tonnes of pork. In Brazil, exports are still considerably lower, at just under 120,000 tonnes per month. The country has now released results for the first five months, during which exports increased by an average of 13.1% compared with the previous year. In the first quarter, growth stood at 16.1%, and total exports amounted to 336,800 tonnes during that period. Although this rise remains somewhat limited in absolute terms, the strong growth of the past five years is creating quite substantial competition.