Rain delays sowing spring grain in Russia

The grain market is once again under pressure, with falling prices for wheat, corn and soy on both the European and American futures markets. A larger expected Russian harvest is adding extra pressure to the wheat market, while excessive rain in China and drought in France are raising new concerns about yield and quality. The September contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €1 lower at €202,75 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat took a sharp hit and closed 15¾ cent lower at $5.87¼ per bushel. Corn closed 9 cent lower at $4.31½ per bushel. Soy followed the same line as the grains and closed 11¼ cent lower at $11.54 per bushel. Market bureau Ikar has raised its forecast for the Russian wheat harvest by 1.5 million tonnes compared with the previous forecast to 91.5 million tonnes. Russian wheat exports in 2026/27 are expected to come to 47.5 million tonnes according to Ikar. The total Russian grain harvest has been raised by 3 million tonnes to 142.5 million tonnes and grain exports are estimated at 63.7 million tonnes. Rain delays sowing in Russia The sowing of spring wheat is not going very smoothly in Russia, Bloomberg writes based on local traders who rely on data from the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. By 26 May, 7.1 million tonnes of wheat had been sown. That is 12% less than last year at this time. Rain in key spring wheat regions of Russia, including the Volga region and Siberia, has delayed fieldwork. Andrey Sizov of SovEcon told Bloomberg that this is the slowest sowing pace since 2018. Sowing relatively late is generally not favorable for yields. The growing season is not long and every week you miss costs yield. In China, wheat farmers are also suffering from too much rain. In the central Chinese province of Hubei and part of Henan, damage is being reported from heavy rain in wheat that is (almost) ripe. Analysts estimate that 4.8 to 10 million tonnes of wheat can no longer be sold as bread wheat but must go as feed, they told Reuters. Heavy showers have caused the wheat to lodge and sprout has set in. The problems in China regarding wheat quality could in time increase demand for wheat from abroad. It may take some time before that effect becomes visible. In 2023, around 20 million tonnes of wheat had to be sold as feed because of sprouting, Darin Friedrichs of Sitonia Consulting told Reuters. Chinese wheat imports then only peaked in February. Dry in France Closer to home, some analysts are starting to worry about the warm and dry weather in France. That is slowing the growth of the grains there. Winter wheat and barley were looking good, but could become emergency ripe under the current conditions according to some experts. In the US, recent rainfall in the wheat belt has calmed nerves somewhat. On the southern prairies, where it was driest, however, only limited rain has fallen. There, though, the harvest is also in full swing. Growers are therefore not really upset that little rain has fallen. Further north, where a lot of spring wheat is also grown, it has rained more and the grains can still benefit from that.