Europe takes heavy hits in fries exports

Global exports of frozen fries decreased by more than 8% in the first quarter. It is especially Europe that has to give ground in the global market. The year started positively for the EU-4 exporters, but after two months little of that remains. Among other things, the war with Iran has a negative effect on exports. International trade data show that in Q1 of 2026, 1.06 million tonnes of frozen fries were exported worldwide, outside countries' local trade regions. That is 8.4% less than in the first quarter of 2026. In absolute terms, this concerns a decrease of almost 97,000 tonnes of product. In Q1 2025, a record quantity of fries was sold, so some decline is not exceptional in itself. The Middle East drops out This is now reinforced by the fact that countries in the Middle East are not or hardly in the market. In particular Saudi Arabia is one of the largest buyers of (European) fries. This trade flow has now almost dried up. A small margin of uncertainty must still be kept in mind, because detailed export figures by country have not yet been released for all months. The quarterly figures also do not include all data from Egypt. This country has only published figures for January. The decline may therefore turn out to be slightly smaller in retrospect. European exporters are suffering the most overseas and this is also visible in the figures. In the first quarter, exports to non-EU countries decreased by almost 18%, to 563,135 tonnes. A year earlier, this was 684,562 tonnes. A difference of no less than 121,427 tonnes. For the fourth year in a row, exports of fries outside the EU are declining after the record year 2023. EU-4 loses its grip It is especially Belgium and the Netherlands that shipped less in the first three months. Germany and especially France are still doing well. Mainly due to strongly increased processing capacity. There are doubts about the accuracy of the Dutch data. It is possible that a correction will still be made afterwards. The EU countries held 53% of the global fries market in Q1. A year earlier, this was still 59%. This is very different for North America. Canada and the US hold 22.9% of world trade compared with 23.1% last year. The US exported 13% fewer fries in Q1 (-27,260 tonnes) and Canada actually exported 6% more (+32,205 tonnes). Turkey is another country that saw its fries exports strongly reduced. In the first quarter this was almost halved, but it concerns a reduction of 8,845 tonnes. On a global scale, that is relatively modest. The country is mainly missing Russia as a major buyer. Record exports for China and India China and India are on the other side of the column, in the green figures. In Q1, Chinese overseas exports increased by 44%, while India exported 36% more. China now has more than 10% of the global export market, followed by India with 4.5%. In volume terms, Chinese exports rose by 34,745 tonnes to 114,000 tonnes. India exported 18,688 tonnes more, to a total of 70,533 tonnes. That is a new record for both countries. The Middle East drops out The picture for importing countries is very mixed. The world's largest importer of fries, the United Kingdom, bought 13% fewer fries in the first quarter. The EU is feeling this especially. Japan is number two and this country actually bought 5% more fries. That is a record for the first quarter. Brazil is in third place, but imports there fell by almost 10%. Exports to Saudi Arabia have decreased by almost 37%, which will probably be mainly related to the war in Iran and its consequences for the Middle East. This concerns 31,750 tonnes less imported compared with the same period last year. The other countries are reported jointly in the report as the Middle East. Countries such as Kuwait, Israel and the United Arab Emirates together bought almost 20% fewer fries. This concerns a decline of 5,760 tonnes. Incidentally, exports had already been declining at the beginning of this year. So that trend is continuing. EU-5 has a better monthCountry figures are available for the EU-5 for February. Belgium exported 239,800 tonnes in that month, which is a little under 4% less than in January. The Netherlands exported 132,700 tonnes. A decline of just over 7%. France kept its exports extremely stable at 57,000 tonnes and Germany was the only country to grow significantly. The total for February comes to 35,000 tonnes and that is 64% more than in January. Poland also saw its exports increase by 7% to 16,462 tonnes. Combined, the EU-5 account for 468,858 tonnes of frozen fries sold both within and outside the EU. Compared with a year ago, the countries are performing almost 6% better together. Mainly because the Netherlands, Belgium and Poland sold more than a year earlier. They owe this increase to more purchases by EU member states. Exports to non-EU countries decreased by 9% in February. That picture was already visible earlier this year. Lower fries pricesAn advantage for the EU-5 countries is the favourable exchange rate of the euro compared with, for example, the dollar. Prices per tonne decreased again in February, with average prices 7.5% lower than a year earlier. Belgium is the only exception. There, the price rose to €1,052 per tonne, which is two euros more than was paid on average in January. That is still by far the lowest price. In the Netherlands, €8 was taken off and in France €11. The German fries price decreased by €19 and Poland charged €22 less.