French wheat in better shape than last year

It is on the dry side but the growing season in western Europe is not unfavorable for grains. That is clear from the new figures from France on the condition of wheat and barley there. In the US, drought is a bigger problem. Frost has now also been added on the southern prairies there. Still, the weather premium in wheat on the CBoT is being lowered somewhat. The May contract for wheat on the Matif closed unchanged yesterday at €187,50 per ton. The September contract, on which most trading is done, closed €1 lower at €206,50 per ton. On the CBoT, the May wheat contract closed 4¼ cent lower at $6.01¾ per bushel. The first contract for the new crop in Chicago, the July contract, closed 5 cent lower at $6.12¼ per bushel. Corn remained unchanged at $4.52¾ per bushel. Soybeans lost 2 cent in the past trading session, bringing them to $11.77 per bushel. In France, wheat is generally in better shape than last year, according to new figures from FranceAgriMer. On the reference date of 4 May, 80% of the soft wheat area in France received a good or excellent rating. Last year at this time that was 74%. Last week, 81% of wheat was rated good or excellent according to FranceAgriMer. Barley is also doing relatively well in France. Of the barley area, 76% receives a good or excellent rating compared with 77% last week and 69% at this time last year. Of the planned corn area in France, 86% has now been sown. Ruble is expensive A bit further east, market bureau Ikar has lowered its wheat export forecast for Russia in season 2025/26. Ikar now expects exports of 44,5 million tons, compared with 46 million tons in the previous forecast. One of the reasons for the downward revision is the stronger ruble. Russian wheat has therefore become relatively more expensive. Exports also often decline somewhat toward the end of the season. In the US, the weather premium in the wheat market has been reduced further. On the southwestern prairies, the mercury fell below freezing yesterday. The chance that frost actually caused damage is not seen as very high. 70% of wheat in drought A bigger problem for farmers there is the drought. Large parts of the prairies and the south of the US are once again colored red on the latest drought monitor. Of the winter wheat in the US, 70% is in a drought area compared with 69% last week and 48% at this time last year. For corn and soybeans, the other major arable crops in the US, the problems are less severe. A quarter of corn and 27% of soybeans are affected by drought. Last year at this time, that was 5% of corn and 12% of soybeans. The entire peanut area in the US is in a drought area, as is 98% of cotton. In the Middle East, meanwhile, tensions remain high. The US claims that Iran has targeted three destroyers and Iran says that the US first attacked two Iranian ships. Despite the skirmishes, both countries appear to want to maintain the ceasefire more or less. A peace proposal from the Americans is on the table. According to American sources, Iran still has to respond to it. Trump would want to wait with any new military actions until his visit to China, which is scheduled for next week.