The international beef market is being reshuffled

The beef market remains rather unbalanced. In Europe, especially in Northern Europe, demand is still relatively suppressed. In the rest of the world, the picture is very different. Meanwhile, the Brazilian beef sector has already triggered the recently introduced quota threshold almost half a year early. The USA will probably benefit, but there is also a way in which Europe can benefit.The primary results for week 18 seem to paint a more stable picture. However, the average is not yet very reliable, as not all countries have provided their data yet. If we look at the data up to week 17, the results show persistent pressure. The average European price went down by 0.7% to €698.67 per 100 kilos. Since the recent peak in week 9, prices have gone down by 5.2%. At that point in time, prices stood at €737.12.Meanwhile, the average European price for O-grade cows has been relatively more stable. This week, the decline was actually quite close, at 0.6%, bringing the price to €609.56. Over a longer period of time, prices have gone down considerably less. Since the recent high point in the market at €622.80 in week 10, prices have gone down by 2.1%.Pressure on cattle market remains After considerable price pressure, the Dutch cattle price has stabilised. Prices in all categories were quoted as stable, and Dutch cattle markets also quoted stable results, showing that a new equilibrium between demand and supply has been reached.The pattern in Germany is very similar for dairy cows, but prices for young bulls of R quality have once again taken a hit. Prices went down by ten cents to €6.30 per kilo. Prices are approaching Dutch levels. The difference between the prices has narrowed to 5 cents, with Dutch prices around €6.25 per kilo.Brazilian beef exports to China are about to be halted Internationally, Brazil’s fast-closing beef export quota into China is causing quite a stir, with the world’s largest beef exporter nearing its annual limit to its biggest buyer before the year is even half over. The quota, introduced by China at the start of 2026 to shield domestic farmers and processors, has triggered a rush of Brazilian beef into Chinese ports. Analysts and industry data now suggest the limit could be exhausted by May or June, after which a 55% tariff on additional volumes would effectively bring trade to a standstill.For Brazil’s beef sector, the implications are immediate. Exporters may soon have to stop slaughtering cattle for the Chinese market, while packers are expected to redirect volumes toward alternative destinations. That shift could reshape global beef flows at a sensitive moment: cattle supplies remain tight, demand is strong, and prices in several key markets are elevated. The U.S. is likely to become a critical outlet, given its own cattle shortage and firm import demand. In Brazil, the prospect of a slowdown in exports to China is already weighing on live cattle prices, easing some of the pressure created by limited domestic cattle availability.US probably main destination A lot of this extra volume will probably be redirected to the US. The January cattle inventory confirmed that the herd is still shrinking, with fewer beef cows and a smaller calf crop limiting the pipeline for future slaughter. Feedlot data have reinforced that picture, as cattle on feed remain below year-earlier levels and placements have weakened. Heavier carcass weights are helping prevent a sharper drop in beef production, but they are not enough to offset the lack of cattle. As a result, USDA’s April outlook still points to lower 2026 beef output and sharply higher slaughter steer prices.That tightness is now visible in boxed beef values. Choice cutout prices rose from $337.37/cwt on 02-01-2026 to $389.03/cwt on 01-05-2026, equal to an increase from $7.44/kg to $8.58/kg. Select moved similarly, from $334.15/cwt to $387.77/cwt, or from $7.37/kg to $8.55/kg. Europe can profit too Still, the current situation is also of interest to Europe. Not only is there higher availability of Brazilian beef that could potentially be exported, but higher Brazilian beef volumes available for the West could also reasonably suppress Argentinian prices. Argentina has been exporting most of its volumes to the USA. The extra supply on the American market could make prices for the European market considerably more attractive.