EU cattle herd stabilizing slowly but surely

The structural decline of the European cattle herd remained clearly visible in 2025. The EU bovine inventory continued to fall, although the latest year-on-year decline was much smaller than the sharp drop recorded in 2024. The contraction remains heavily concentrated in France and Germany.The EU cattle herd declined again in 2025, according to Eurostat data. In November-December 2024, the EU27 bovine herd amounted to 71.90 million head. One year later, this decreased to 71.53 million head, down 0.5%. This confirms the continuation of the long-term structural decline, although the pace of decline slowed compared to the previous year. Over the full 2016-2025 period, the EU27 cattle herd decreased from 79.70 million to 71.53 million head, a decline of 8.16 million head, or 10.2%.Compared with 2024, the decline in the European cattle herd was relatively subtle. The largest annual decline in the period occurred between 2023 and 2024, when the EU27 herd fell by 1.87 million head, or 2.5%. The following decline from 2024 to 2025 was much more limited at 0.36 million head. That is considerably below the average decline of 1.2% per year over the last ten years.{KEY INSIGHT 1} Western European cattle herds remain under pressure The decline was notably concentrated in Western European countries. Since the decline started in 2016, the Netherlands recorded one of the steepest percentage contractions, with the herd falling from 4.29 million to 3.55 million head, down 17.4%. Belgium declined by 15.0%, while Italy fell by 9.1% and Ireland by 5.0%.As these countries drove the decline over the last few years, it may not be much of a surprise that most countries in the region have seen a slower decline than average over the last few years. Compared to 2024, most of these countries continued to move lower. Italy declined by 27,000 head, or 0.47%, Belgium by 26,000 head, or 1.21%, Ireland by 24,000 head, or 0.38%, Denmark by 14,000 head, or 0.99%, and the Netherlands by 13,000 head, or 0.38%. These individual declines are smaller than the long-term trend, but they confirm that the structural pressure has not disappeared.Two examples that show the decline losing speed the best are Italy and the Netherlands. Compared with the long-term trend, the latest one-year declines were relatively mild. For example, Italy’s cattle inventory fell by about 1.06% per year. Its 2024-2025 decline of 0.47% was smaller than its average annual long-term decline. The Netherlands has shown an even stronger structural decline over the last ten years, of about 2.09% per year. By comparison, its 2024-2025 decline of 0.38% was much smaller.Spain was the main exception among the large Western European countries in 2025. The Spanish cattle herd rebounded and thus increased from 6.17 million to 6.30 million head, up 2.0%. This partly offset declines elsewhere.{KEY INSIGHT 2} The decline is visible across age categories The contraction seems to be largely structural in nature. This is not a surprise, as environmental policy and a lack of successors have weighed on cattle herds. It seemed plausible that at least part of the pressure was temporary, as we have been seeing in other big international markets like the United States. However, the data does not support this conclusion. The EU27 herd declined across all main age groups, indicating broad structural pressure rather than a temporary shift in herd composition.Animals under one year old fell from 24.40 million head in 2016 to 21.93 million in 2025, a decline of 2.46 million head, or 10.1%. Animals aged one to less than two years decreased from 16.31 million to 14.40 million head, down 1.91 million, or 11.7%.The implied older cattle category, calculated as total cattle minus the two younger age groups, also declined. This age-2-plus residual fell from 38.99 million to 35.20 million head, a decline of 3.79 million, or 9.7%. This shows that over the ten-year period, there has been no intention to replace the declining number of cattle.However, there has been a slight change over the last year. In 2025, the number of cattle under one year old contracted at a slower rate than other categories. Although this shows that a rebuild of the cow herd is improbable at this point in time, it is quite likely that the European herd size will stabilise further in the coming years.{KEY INSIGHT 3} France and Germany dominate the long-term decline The decline in the European cattle herd is highly concentrated. France and Germany alone account for almost two-thirds of the total EU27 country-level decline between 2016 and 2025. Together, these two countries lost 5.19 million head, equal to 63.6% of the total EU27 decline. Country Change 2016-2025 Share of net EU27 decline France -3,141,000 head 38.5% Germany -2,046,000 head 25.1% Netherlands -745,000 head 9.1% Italy -577,000 head 7.1% Belgium -374,000 head 4.6% Ireland -329,000 head 4.0% Romania -249,000 head 3.1% Portugal -163,000 head 2.0% Denmark -154,000 head 1.9% Austria -140,000 head 1.7% France remains the largest EU27 cattle producer, but its herd fell sharply from 19.37 million head in 2016 to 16.23 million in 2025, a decline of 3.14 million head, or 16.2%. Germany shows a similar structural contraction, with its cattle herd falling from 12.47 million to 10.42 million head, down 2.05 million, or 16.4%.The latest annual movement confirms that France remains a key driver of the decline. Between 2024 and 2025, the French cattle herd decreased by 246,000 head, by far the largest absolute decline among EU27 countries. About 68.1% of the decline in the year was the result of the decline in France alone. Germany also declined, but more moderately, by 41,000 head. That explains 11.3% of the decline in 2025.{KEY INSIGHT 4} Eastern Europe shows selective growth, but not a broad shift Analysts often note that there is a lot of potential for a structural production shift from Western European countries. The data does not yet show a broad shift of cattle production from Western to Eastern Europe. Some Eastern and Central European countries recorded growth, but the increases are relatively modest compared with the declines in France and Germany. Before the war in Ukraine in 2022, yearly growth of about 1% to 2% was recorded for these countries, but since then the growth numbers have turned negative.Poland is the most important EU27 country showing long-term growth. Its cattle herd increased from 5.97 million to 6.14 million head between 2016 and 2025, up 2.9%. Czechia increased by 3.7%, and Hungary by 3.6%.At the same time, several Eastern European countries declined. Romania fell from 2.05 million to 1.80 million head, down 12.2%. Therefore, while some Central European markets are more stable or slightly growing, the data does not support a large-scale eastward relocation of the European cattle herd.Conclusion The structural decline of the European cattle herd is still ongoing, although the pace of decline slowed clearly in 2025. France and Germany remain the main drivers of the long-term contraction, while several Western European countries such as the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Ireland and Denmark continued to decline, but at a slower rate than their long-term average.The data does not yet show a broad shift of cattle production from Western to Eastern Europe. Poland, Czechia and Hungary recorded modest long-term growth, but this is not enough to offset the large declines in France and Germany. Spain was the main positive exception in 2025. Overall, the European cattle herd appears to be moving toward stabilisation rather than recovery. Structural pressure from policy, profitability and succession issues remains, but the slower decline in 2025 suggests that the sharpest phase of contraction may have passed for now.