New tensions around Iran keep energy expensive

Tensions in the Middle East have risen again. At the same time, the American Secretary of War Pete Hegseth hinted today that America will soon withdraw its presence from the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices remain high. The oil price had fallen before the weekend to a still-elevated level of $108.17 per barrel. On Monday, the price had already climbed to $114.44. Following the latest developments, the price has again eased slightly to $112.19 per barrel at the time of writing. Trump launched Project Freedom yesterday (Monday 4 May). He aims to escort merchant ships out of the Strait of Hormuz. For a number of ships this seems to have worked, including a Maersk container ship. The ceasefire is once again under renewed pressure. The US has attacked Iranian boats and Iran in turn has attacked Oman and the United Arab Emirates. According to the US, however, the truce has not been breached. According to the Iranian news agency Mizan, Iran has meanwhile expanded its controlled section of the Strait of Hormuz. Diesel prices Diesel prices are slightly lower than before the weekend, although the price of €178.05 is still 29% higher than on 27 February, before the US and Israel attacked Iran. Gas prices are slightly higher than a week ago, but the difference is minimal. At the time of writing (Tuesday afternoon 5 May) the gas price is €47.06 per MWh. By comparison, on 27 February it was more than a third lower: €31.23 per MWh. Gas stocks remain low European gas stocks are currently filled to just under 34%. In the Netherlands, they are just under 11%. The incentive to fill gas stocks is low because of the high prices. The Netherlands now produces only a fraction of the gas that used to be produced, which means the stocks must mainly be filled with imported gas. Because market forces are not functioning properly, Energie Beheer Nederland (EBN) can borrow €23.1 billion to purchase gas. EBN must also build up a strategic reserve as mandated by the government and the state-owned company will also have a filling task for 2026/27. Electricity prices showed large differences on Epex Spot last week. On 1 May the daily average was only €1.24, while on 4 May €127.62 was recorded.