Even more pigs in China, meat imports continue to decline

The Chinese pig farming sector has been dealing for some time with the effects of high pork production. Pig prices are low and pork imports are falling rapidly. In the first quarter as well, producers further increased production. Analysts partly attribute this to the effect of reducing the pig herd, with extra pigs being slaughtered. However, the reduction of the pig herd is happening at a slower pace than expected. China's pork production in the first quarter was 4.2% higher than in the same period of 2025. The total volume amounted to 16.69 million tons, more than 600,000 tons more than a year earlier. According to Rabobank analysts, pig farmers are scaling back numbers somewhat, but this is not happening at a fast pace. The fact that production is rising anyway, according to the bank, shows that productivity in China's pig sector is increasing rapidly. Imports continue to decline at a rapid pace The growing production volume means that China's pork import volume has been declining for years. Figures from Chinese customs (China Customs) show that this downward trend has strengthened further in the first months of this year. In particular, imports of higher-end meat cuts are now only a fraction of the level of around five years ago. Although the volume of imported by-products is still significant, this volume is also declining. In the first two months of this year, China imported a total of 310,000 tons of pork products. Of this, 190,000 tons were by-products and 120,000 tons were higher-end cuts. This volume represented a value of around $606 million. In the same period last year, the total was 380,000 tons, of which 180,000 tons were by-products. The export value over the first two months of 2025 was still $807 million. Five years ago, in 2021, the total imported volume was still 900,000 tons and represented a value of $2.4 billion. Imports from the European Union are also declining. After the peak year 2020, as a result of a large number of outbreaks of African swine fever in China, the volume has declined annually. The year 2025 is currently a new low point. The recent developments in China so far offer little room for recovery in import demand.