Wheat price in Chicago pulls Paris along

The futures market in Chicago is currently setting the tone, with the market in Paris following somewhat reluctantly. The main driver behind this rise is the ongoing drought across a large part of the US wheat belt, particularly in Kansas and Texas, which is fuelling concerns about significant yield losses. In the United States, wheat has reached its highest level in nearly two years. Analysts note that some of the damage may already be irreversible, especially given the crop’s advanced stage of development. Rain may bring local relief, but in some regions it is likely arriving too late. In addition, international concerns are mounting. Production estimates for 2026/27 point to declines in Australia (-19%) and Canada (-10%), partly due to reduced acreage and a normalisation of yields following strong previous years. Higher input costs, such as fertilisers, are also contributing to growers’ reluctance. This reinforces the outlook of tighter global supply and provides additional support to the Chicago market. Competition remains strongAgainst this backdrop, the European market is also moving higher, albeit with somewhat less conviction. On Euronext’s MATIF, wheat rose to its highest level in around a month, mainly in response to the US rally and firmer oil prices. However, underlying factors in Europe continue to act as a constraint. Export demand is moderate and buyers are delaying purchases, while wheat from the Black Sea region remains competitively priced.The regional situation also plays a role. Although drought in parts of Europe is attracting attention, soil moisture remains sufficient for the time being. As a result, the acute stress seen in the US market is absent. The outcome is that Paris follows Chicago, but without the same sense of urgency. Overall, a market picture is emerging in which Chicago sets the direction and Paris responds. As long as weather risks in the US remain dominant and global production expectations remain under pressure, the upward momentum is likely to persist. The question is whether Europe will accelerate or whether restraining factors will further widen the gap with Chicago. The May contract in Paris rose on Tuesday by €2.50 to €197 per tonne. In that respect, the new crop is performing better for growers. The September contract increased by €5.25 to €214.25 per tonne, bringing the price difference between old and new crop to €17.25 per tonne.In Chicago, the May contract was quoted 27.5 cents higher at $6.49 per bushel. The September 2026 contract rose by 28.25 cents to $6.70¾ per bushel. For contract months in 2027, prices climbed to just above $7 per bushel. This indicates a clear upward movement in prices. The old-crop quotation in Chicago is higher than in Paris. On the CBOT, the May contract is equivalent to €204 per tonne, or €7 higher than in Paris. This is not yet the case for the new crop, although the differences have narrowed. September 2026 is trading on the CBOT at the equivalent of €211 per tonne, which is €3 lower than in Paris.