Drought slows wheat growth in Central and Eastern Europe

After a predominantly mild winter and a relatively mild start to spring, winter grains are developing under favourable conditions across large parts of Europe. Yield expectations for wheat are slightly above the multi-year average, underscoring the positive picture. In Western Europe, especially in France and the Benelux, wheat crops are benefiting from an early start to growth and above-average biomass accumulation. Mild temperatures and sufficient soil moisture have led to an early lead in development. The outlook is also favourable in Spain and Portugal, partly thanks to well-filled water reserves after a wet winter period. In these regions, wheat appears to be moving towards an above-average harvest, according to the MARS crop monitoring report from the European Commission’s JRC (Joint Research Centre). In Central and Eastern Europe, however, a different picture is emerging. Since the end of winter, a large part of this region has been dealing with a precipitation deficit. Although soil moisture reserves are still sufficient for now, the drought is beginning to translate into slower development and growing concerns heading into the critical growth phases of wheat, such as ear formation. The situation is especially vulnerable in Germany, Poland and parts of Ukraine. Without additional rain, crop condition could deteriorate quickly. Temperature also plays a dual role. On the one hand, above-average temperatures in many areas have sped up growth, while on the other hand, cold spells in April are causing delays and slight damage locally. These temperature fluctuations are leading to uneven wheat development across Europe, with some fields ahead and others lagging behind. In Southern Europe, water is posing a different kind of problem in some places. Excessive rainfall in parts of Italy and Southeastern Europe has led to waterlogging and lodging of crops, including durum wheat. Although the growing season still offers room for recovery, yield potential has already been affected locally. All in all, European wheat is looking fairly good. In most regions, yield expectations are around or slightly above average, supported by a good start to the season. The persistent drought in parts of Europe in particular may become decisive in the coming weeks for the final yield. In the April MARS report, the average wheat yield in the EU-27 this year is estimated at 5.83 tons per hectare. That is about 4% less than last year, but 3% more than the five-year average. There are particularly clear differences compared with previous years in Romania, Finland, Spain and Belgium. In Romania, yields per hectare appear likely to come out at around 5 tons per hectare, as much as 11% above the five-year average, JRC concludes based on the current crop condition. However, that is also 11% lower than the yields achieved in the country last year. A similar situation applies to Finland (3.8 tons per hectare) and Spain (3.56 tons per hectare). In Belgium, by contrast, all signs are still pointing to a better harvest. JRC estimates the yield there this year at 8.36 tons per hectare. That is 5% above average and 13% more than last year. For wheat in the Netherlands, the European Commission research institute is currently aiming for a harvest of 9.25 tons per hectare. That is almost 1 ton less than last year, but 0.5 tons more than the five-year average.