Strait of Hormuz continues to determine fuel prices

The ceasefire in Iran has been extended, but the Strait of Hormuz is in practice still almost completely closed. As a result, oil prices remain high. The market also seems to have little confidence in a swift resolution, because since the weekend both oil and gas prices have been rising again. Europe is competing with Asia on the market. Figures presented by the Port of Rotterdam show that at least five oil tankers that were on their way to Rotterdam have changed course to Asia.The oil price dipped last Friday to $90.38 per barrel, the lowest price in more than six weeks. The initial optimism has however reversed, because since the weekend Brent crude oil has continued to rise. At present, the price is again well above $100, with $102.83 per barrel at the time of writing.After a slight drop, diesel prices are again at about the same level as last week. At the time of writing that is €176.03 per 100 litres from 4,000 litres (LTO member price).Until the Strait of Hormuz opens and a peace agreement is reached, the stress and panic will remain in the market and everything will remain volatile, says Marjolein Brökling, head of pricing and portfolio management at AgroEnergy in today's webinar (23 April).US President Donald Trump has extended the ceasefire in Iran − which was due to expire on Wednesday morning (European time) after two weeks − for an indefinite period. However, little progress seems to be made in the peace negotiations and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has not improved.Yesterday (Wednesday 22 April) Iran fired on and seized two container ships. The US does not consider the ceasefire to have been violated because the ships have no ties with the US or Israel.According to The Washington Post, there are also twenty or more mines in the strait. After a peace agreement, it could take up to half a year to clear them. Meanwhile, according to Iranian media, Iran has received the first toll revenues from traffic through the strait.Electricity prices The peaks and troughs in electricity prices have been more pronounced since 28 February. Because of the share of gas in the power mix, prices shoot up when little renewable energy is being generated. Last week the highest daily average on Epex spot was €106.24 per MWh and the lowest €73.64 per MWh.US increases gas productionAs with oil, the gas price fell on 17 April to €38.77 per MWh, the lowest point since 2 March. The gas price has also risen every day since Monday and is now at €44.44 per MWh.Gas production in the US is being significantly ramped up. The US Energy Agency EIA expects that by the end of 2027 the US daily net gas exports will have risen by almost 30% compared with the end of 2025. Five LNG projects are being added, increasing production and export capacity.Daily US LNG exports to Europe rose by almost 64% in 2025. Europe accounted for 68% of the US export volume. Due to trade tensions, the exported volume to China fell to zero. LNG exports to the Netherlands in 2025 amounted to 651.134 million cubic feet (18.427 million cubic meters), compared with 463.769 million cubic feet (13.125 million cubic meters) in 2024. That is an increase of more than 40%.AgroEnergy notes in the webinar that competition has increased: Will such an LNG tanker go to Europe or Asia? Brökling expects that this will remain the case in the coming period. Asia imports much more directly from the Middle East. Because that import flow is now largely drying up, prices there have risen more sharply.Five tankers changed course to AsiaThe statement by the Port of Rotterdam on the first quarter also shows that there is fierce competition, in this case for oil. Due to the higher prices in Asia, at least five tankers that were on their way to Rotterdam have changed course to Asia.The figures for the first quarter of the Port of Rotterdam hardly yet reflect the disruption to traffic caused by the Strait of Hormuz. Partly this is because the attack by the US and Israel on Iran took place late in the quarter, on 28 February. Rotterdam relies on Persian Gulf countries for 10% of its crude oil throughput and 14% of its mineral oil products throughput.In total, 19 million tonnes (4.4%) of the annual transshipment in Rotterdam comes from countries in the Persian Gulf. This mainly concerns crude oil from Iraq and Saudi Arabia, kerosene from Kuwait, fuel oil from Saudi Arabia and gas oil from Qatar. LNG from Qatar does not come to Rotterdam. About two thirds of the LNG transshipped in Rotterdam comes from the United States, according to the port authority. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz underlines how vulnerable global energy flows are, says the CEO of Port of Rotterdam Authority, Boudewijn Siemons. The effects of this are still only limited in the first quarter and may become more apparent in the second quarter.