European pig herd developments and market implications

The structural pressure on the European pig herd was once again clearly visible in 2025. The total European herd contracted further, driven by substantial declines in Spain and the Netherlands. However, the data does not yet support a production shift toward Eastern European markets.The European pig herd declined slightly in 2025, according to Eurostat data. In 2024, the pig herd amounted to 132.14 million head. One year later, this number decreased to 131.52 million pigs, down 0,5%. This confirms the continuation of the structural decline. Over a five-year period, the pig herd decreased by 9.9%. In 2020, 145.92 million pigs were recorded.When we look at the biggest European producers, we see mixed results. Spain, the largest producer, shows a decline from 34.57 to 33.65 million pigs (-2.7%), indicating a downward correction after the peak year of 2024. While most European pig herds have shrunk over the last five years, the Spanish herd grew until 2024. During that period, the Spanish pig herd increased by 5.6%. However, once prices fell drastically, Spanish pig farmers decided to reduce their herd. Also, production was down as a result of the PRRS-virus.{KEY INSIGHT 1} Classical top three pig producers see mayor declines Germany, on the other hand, remains relatively stable and records slight growth from 21.29 million to 21.49 million (+0.9%). This appears to be an upward correction following the large decline between 2020 and 2024, during which the pig herd shrank by 18.3%. The traditionally third-largest market, France, continues its decline. We see a mild downward trend with a small decrease from 11.71 million pigs to 11.64 million (-0.6%). In France, the decline is structural, with the pig herd shrinking every year over the past five years, resulting in a total decline of 13.1%.{KEY INSIGHT 2} Dynamics in other major producers shift Denmark stands out with the strongest growth among major producers: the pig herd increases from 11.583 to 12.274 million (+6.0%). This is the result of a significant change in the way the country produces pigs. Piglet producers have had trouble finding buyers for their piglets, and as a result, more hogs were kept domestically. This led to a considerable increase in the Danish pig herd. At the same time, the large Danish slaughterhouses have stimulated increased hog production in the domestic market. The strong growth can also be seen as a correction, as the Danish pig sector experienced substantial contractions in previous years. Despite the growth in 2025, the Danish pig herd is still 8.3% lower than in 2020.Meanwhile, the Netherlands is moving in the opposite direction and shows the largest contraction, with a decline from 10.192 to 9.419 million (-7.6%), pointing to a clear structural reduction. This is largely the result of a government-led program aimed at reducing nitrogen emissions in the agricultural sector. This policy has accelerated the planned contraction of the industry. Over the last five years, the Dutch pig herd declined by 18.4%. Meanwhile, Italy stabilizes, with a small increase from 7.820 to 7.871 million (+0.6%) following earlier declines. Over a five-year period, this still represents a decline of 7.8%.{KEY INSIGHT 3} Eastern European market recovers As Europe experiences a clear decline in pig herds, many Eastern European countries have ambitions to expand their production. Poland, in particular, has strong growth ambitions. However, the growth pattern observed up until 2019 was disrupted when Poland was hit hardest by African swine fever (ASF) among European countries. After years of contraction, Poland is now gradually bringing the situation under control. The pig herd has started to recover slightly, increasing from 9.078 to 9.225 million (+1.6%).In Central and Eastern Europe, the overall picture is somewhat more positive. However, over a longer period, a similar pattern of decline is still visible. The larger producers in the region have also struggled with ASF, but over the past year the industry has managed the situation more effectively. Romania grows from 3.258 to 3.337 million (+2.4%), although it remains well below the 3.9 million level recorded in 2018. The Hungarian pig herd increases from 2.802 to 2.870 million (+2.4%), bringing herd levels close to their historical peak in 2020.{KEY INSIGHT 4} Europe reacts to a challenging global market The European pig herd has experienced a significant decline over the past five years, affecting nearly all countries. Spain appears to be the only major production market that showed sustained growth until recently. One of the key drivers behind the decline is changing consumer demand. Traditionally, pork has been the most popular type of meat in the European Union, but in recent years demand has shifted toward chicken and beef. Chicken is perceived as a healthier and more environmentally friendly option, while beef is considered a premium product.Meanwhile, the global market has not been favorable to the European pork industry. Brazilian production has grown substantially, creating strong competition in export markets. Brazil has significantly undercut EU and US prices. The US market has not yet responded by reducing production, resulting in a situation of global oversupply for more than three years. Europe has been the first region to reduce supply, as European prices remain higher than in the other two major production regions.{KEY INSIGHT 5} Shift to Eastern Europe has not yet occurred Another important factor behind the contraction over the past five years has been the increasing focus on sustainability. Many Western countries have deliberately reduced their pig herds and introduced stricter regulations to limit emissions. The market expects production to partly shift to Eastern Europe, where environmental regulations are less strict and environmental pressure is lower due to smaller herd sizes.So far, however, Eurostat herd data does not support this shift. While Eastern European countries have shown slightly stronger recovery trends than Western Europe, their pig herds have also declined significantly in recent years. For now, weak demand relative to global supply and the ongoing impact of ASF remain major limiting factors preventing a structural shift in production.ConclusionThe structural decline of the European pig market is still ongoing, although at the same time some adjustments have taken place in key markets such as Denmark and Germany. Meanwhile, the Dutch and Spanish pig herds have declined considerably, contributing to the overall reduction in the European pig herd. Despite a more pronounced upward correction, the Eastern European pig market has not yet captured a significant share from the declining Northern market.So far, prices have not yet increased significantly as a result of the lower pig herd. This is due to declining demand and a very ample global pork supply, resulting in a weak export outlook for European countries.