Uncertainty for Canadian potato sector as potato glut worsens

There was a 14% larger potato stock in Canada on April 1st compared to the same date last year. That is reported by United Potato Growers of Canada (UPGC). This larger stock is wholly situated in the western provinces, that had a bigger area and positive yield. The eastern provinces all saw lower stocks. Uncertainties mount as growing costs spike and both processing and export levels are lower.Manitoba held 18.7% more stock on April 1st and Alberta had almost 50% more potatoes in store. This amounts to 570,528 tonnes (+89,766 tonnes) in the first province and 801,406 tonnes (+260,180 tonnes) in the second. A larger area, favourable growing season and slower processing pace all tribute to this significantly higher stock.The total potato stock in Canada amounted to 2.55 million tonnes of potatoes on April 1st. An increase of 310,000 tonnes compared to the 2.24 million tonnes that were in store a year ago.Effect of drought It is a different story on the Eastern coast. Because of widespread drought, yields on Prince Edward Island were much lower. 5% fewer potatoes were in store on April 1st, amounting to 491,648 tonnes. That is 26,632 tonnes less compared to last year. The potato stocks in New Brunswick are 5.5% lower and the situation in Quebec and Ontario is similar to 2025.The surplus situation shows the best in the processing sector. Manitoba and Alberta saw record crops in 2025 and the processing industry is struggling to find a place for all these potatoes. There were over a quarter more processing potatoes in the prairie states, with 8.5% more in Manitoba and over 40% in Alberta, compared to 2025.Contract negotiations have been completed between growers and processors in the growing regions above. They are still ongoing in other areas, where increased costs of production due to more expensive fertiliser and fuel are two important factors that both parties are discussing.Lowest disappearance in years The disappearance of potatoes for March was 478,000 tonnes, which is 6.2% less compared to a year ago. It is the lowest potato disappearance for March during the last few years. New Brunswick and Ontario managed to move more potatoes in March, mainly due to the fresh sector, but all other provinces are down.This potato glut is most notable with the processing sector. This branch took 275,000 tonnes of potatoes in March, which is 43,784 tonnes (13.7%) less than the 318,784 tonnes that was processed last year. The processing potato disappearance in Manitoba was almost 38% less and 16.5% in Alberta.Prince Edward island meanwhile processed 7.3% more potatoes and New Brunswick saw 3.1% more produce being processed. The fresh potato sector is also struggling, with 11% less disappearance.Less exports to US Canadian companies are exporting less fresh potatoes and fewer frozen fries to their biggest customer the US. January inventory numbers show that processors are holding more stocks compared to a year ago. The US has a much bigger harvest themselves, which is also felt in Canada.The slower disappearance and export, coupled to a lot of uncertainties and price spikes, mean that it is difficult for potato growers in Canada to decide what is the best strategy. This makes it difficult to estimate the area movement. UPGC currently estimates that the total potato area will remain flat, with a 0.2% decrease to 160,323 hectares. Despite the current situation, it is estimated that Manitoba and Alberta will again grow their area by 2.8%. As contracts have already been settled here, it is likely that this will happen.Situation can still change In other parts of Canada, where contract negotiations are still ongoing, it is much more difficult to estimate what the growing year will bring. Farmers are looking at increased costs for potato growing this year and a later spring compared to last year. Alternative crops are all thin on the ground. This means that the final decision for growers – and thus the potato area – can turn out to be lower than currently estimated by industry professionals.