Russia seeks alternative routes for grain exports

The ceasefire between Iran and the US remains fragile. That became clear again last weekend with attacks on merchant ships by both parties. That had an impact on the oil market and indirectly on the wheat market. To avoid the Strait of Hormuz, Russia has put an alternative route into use for the export of grain to Iran. In addition, the weather in the US is providing support for especially the wheat market. In the south of the US it is dry. Further north they still had frost relatively late. The March contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €2.50 higher at €194 per tonne. The September contract, in which most trading takes place, also closed in the green, up €2.75 at €206.75 per tonne. On the Chicago exchange, wheat closed 5¾ cents higher at $5.97 per bushel. Corn gained 3¼ cents to $4.52 per bushel. Soy did not follow the trend of the grains and lost 1½ cent to $11.65¾ per bushel. Tension in the Middle East remains an important factor in the grain market. The US navy boarded an Iranian ship last weekend and Iran fired on merchant ships that tried to sail through the Strait of Hormuz. In effect, the strait is blocked. That had an impact on the oil price and thus indirectly also on the wheat price.Via the Caspian Sea to IranRussia has exported wheat via the Caspian Sea to Iran for the first time in years, according to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. In the first quarter of 2026 Russia shipped 500,000 tonnes of corn, 180,000 tonnes of feed barley and 4,000 tonnes of wheat to Iran via the Caspian Sea. The ports on the Caspian Sea have not exported any wheat for more than eight years. The entire supply went to the Black Sea, to Novorossiysk, writes Alexander Sharov, head of consultancy RusIranExpo. In March 300,000 tonnes of grain went across the Caspian Sea compared with virtually nothing in March 2025. The usual route in recent years for Russian grain exports to Iran was via the Black Sea to the large grain terminals of Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is this season the third largest customer for grain from Russia. The Ikar quotation for Russian wheat has risen by $1 compared with last week to $237 per tonne. Market bureau SovEcon expects Russia to export 4 million wheat this month.US weather supports wheat pricesIn addition to the geopolitical unrest, the weather in the US is also providing some support for the wheat price. The condition of winter wheat in the US has again deteriorated somewhat. This week 30% of the area is rated good or excellent, according to the USDA Crop Progress report. Last week that was 34%. In terms of development, winter wheat is slightly ahead of the multi-year average. 20% of the area is in ear compared with 12% in the five-year average and 14% last year this week. US farmers are keeping up fairly well with sowing spring wheat. 12% of the planned area has been sown and that is equal to the five-year average. Last year this week 16% of the spring wheat had been sown. 2% of the spring wheat is already above ground. Corn sowing is also progressing reasonably well with 11% of the planned area sown versus the five-year average of 9%. Soy sowing has really picked up so early in the season. 12% of it has been sown compared with 5% in the five-year average and 7% last year. In the southern states Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee, farmers are already more than halfway done with soy. Last weekend there was still some frost in large parts of the Midwest and on the prairies. Not surprising that soy growers further north are still not in such a hurry to sow. Frost at night is not exactly favorable for wheat fairly late in the season. Still, several analysts do not expect the frost to have caused much damage.