Milk production rising up in France, Germany, Italy, and Poland

Milk production across France, Germany, Italy, and Poland continued to expand in February. Early signs of slowing growth emerged, particularly in milk solids, deriving from lower nutritional content and farmgate prices facing significant pressure. While the organic segment maintained a price premium, its performance diverged significantly between countries.Milk production in France totaled 1.98 million tons in February, observing an increase of 6% over the previous year and a slight acceleration from the 5.8% annual growth recorded in January. Cumulatively, output reached 4.12 million tons as of February, representing a solid start to the year.The production of milk solids (MS) followed a similar trend, although growth showed early signs of slowdown. In February, MS output increased by 6.2% year-over-year to 149,262 tons, slowing from January’s 6.7% expansion. This was not only driven by milk volumes but also by a decline in milk’s nutritional composition. Fat and protein contents averaged 4.18% and 3.34%, respectively, declining over the previous month. Year-to-date (YTD), MS output reached 312,843 tons as of February, representing a 6.5% increase compared to the previous year.Farmgate milk prices continued to decline, averaging €46.89 per 100 kilo in February. This represents a decrease of 3.3% compared to January and 8.4% compared to the previous year, with prices at their lowest since 2024.In the organic segment, production growth remained more moderate. Output increased by 1.3% year-over-year to 178,924 tons as of February, with growth concentrated in January (+2% YoY) and only a minor expansion in February (+0.5% YoY). Organic milk prices averaged €53.67 per 100 kilo, declining by 4% month-over-month while remaining broadly stable year-over-year (+0.1%). Despite this relative stability, prices remained at the lower end of the regional organic range, averaging €62.37 per 100 kilo in the EU.GermanyIn Germany, milk production reached 2.63 million tons in February, increasing by 6.9% compared to the previous year. While growth remained strong, it slowed slightly compared to January, when output rose by 7% year-over-year. Cumulative production totaled 5.48 million tons as of February, also reflecting a 6.9% annual increase.MS output increased by 7.2% year-over-year to 204,515 tons in February, slowing from the 7.7% growth recorded in January. As in France, this moderation was partly driven by a decline in milk composition. Fat and protein contents averaged 4.24% and 3.55%, respectively, both declining compared to the previous month. YTD MS output reached 428,283 tons, representing a 7.4% increase year-over-year.Price developments in Germany were more pronounced. Farmgate milk prices fell to €40.78 per 100 kilo in February, declining by 4.1% compared to January and by 25.2% compared to the previous year, placing them among the lowest in the region.In contrast, the organic segment exhibited more resilience. Organic milk production increased by 8.7% year-over-year to 260,332 tons as of February, with growth accelerating in February (+9.5% YoY) and surpassing that of conventional milk. Organic prices averaged €67.28 per 100 kilo, declining slightly by 1.2% month-over-month but increasing by 5.1% year-over-year, remaining above the regional average.ItalyItaly reported the strongest production growth among the countries considered. Milk output reached 1.1 million tons in February, representing a 9.1% increase compared to the previous year and a clear acceleration from the 7.6% growth observed in January. YTD production increased by 8.3% year-over-year to 2.27 million tons.MS output followed a similar trajectory, increasing by 9.2% year-over-year to 83,097 tons in February, slightly outpacing the growth in liquid milk. This was primarily driven by higher milk volumes rather than milk composition, which declined compared to January. Fat and protein contents averaged 4.07% and 3.48%, respectively, although both remained above the previous year. Cumulative MS output reached 172,697 tons, representing an 8.7% increase year-over-year.Farmgate milk prices averaged €47.49 per 100 kilo in February, decreasing by 2.2% compared to January and by 16.8% compared to the previous year. Eurostat reports similar price levels in March and April.In the organic segment, production increased more moderately, rising by 2.7% year-over-year to 33,343 tons as of February. Organic milk prices averaged €64.13 per 100 kilo, declining by 2.7% month-over-month and by 11.8% year-over-year, pointing to a weaker performance compared to other major producers.PolandIn Poland, milk production reached 1.08 million tons in February, increasing by 2.5% compared to the previous year. This represents a slowdown compared to the 3.4% annual growth recorded in January and reflects a stronger production baseline in early 2025 compared to other countries.MS output increased by 2.2% year-over-year to 82,630 tons in February, slightly below the growth in liquid milk. Protein content remained stable at 3.47%, while fat content declined marginally to 4.17%, contributing to the more limited expansion in MS. On a YTD basis, MS output reached 173,193 tons, increasing by 2.7% compared to the previous year.Farmgate milk prices averaged €44.67 per 100 kilo in February, declining by 1.2% compared to January and by 18.3% compared to the previous year. Eurostat data for March indicates a further decline of 3% month-over-month to €43.31 per 100 kilo.In contrast to other countries, the organic segment in Poland showed a significant contraction. Production declined by 13.9% year-over-year to 1,724 tons as of February, underlining the relatively small size of the sector. Organic milk prices averaged €60.68 per 100 kilo, decreasing by 2.6% compared to January and by 10.9% compared to the previous year, reaching their lowest level since September 2024.Regional outlookAcross the countries considered, milk production expanded in February compared to the previous year, supported in part by a weaker baseline in early 2025 in France, Germany, and Italy. In contrast, Poland reported a moderate growth due to stronger production levels in the previous year.Despite the overall expansion, growth rates showed early signs of moderation compared to January, particularly in MS output. This slowdown was partly linked to seasonal dynamics. The increase in milk volumes during the early stages of the milk flush was accompanied by a decline in fat and protein contents, reducing the pace of growth in MS across most countries.At the same time, milk pricing remains a concern. Farmgate milk prices in the conventional segment have declined to multi-year lows across all markets, with further downward movements reported in March and April. This weak price environment reduces support for continued production expansion and may place pressure on output once the seasonal peak is over.In the organic segment, prices continued to command a premium over conventional milk, but results diverge across the different countries. Germany stood out with strong production growth and resilient prices, while France and Italy recorded more moderate growth and declining price levels. Poland marked a notable contrast from the regional trend, with both production and prices in the organic segment declining.