US blockade puts fuel prices further on edge

The Strait of Hormuz continues to play a key role in the development of energy prices. The blockade of the strait announced by Trump brings new risks. According to IEA chief Fatih Birol, the supply crisis is not yet fully reflected in the oil price. That implies that oil will rise further in price. The price for a barrel of crude Brent oil ended Friday at $95.20. On Monday, the price rose with the American blockade, but remained below $100. In recent weeks, peaks of more than $112 per barrel have also been seen. At the time of writing Tuesday afternoon 14 April, the oil price has eased somewhat to $97.65. Still a high level compared with around $60 at the beginning of 2026. Diesel is also taking a step back: from €184.91 on Monday to €176.30 per 100 litres from 4,000 litres (LTO-ledenprijs) today. The two week ceasefire was announced a week ago. The negotiations between the US and Iran about what happens next have so far failed. Meanwhile, Iran continues to determine who may, and especially may not, sail through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has therefore decided that the US itself will from yesterday Monday 13 April block Iranian ports and part of the strait. So far, however, that does not seem very effective if the reports are to be believed. The BBC reports that today at least four ships linked to Iran crossed the Strait of Hormuz. Two of them would also have called at an Iranian port. Iran in turn has threatened that no port in the Gulf region is safe if Iranian ports are blocked. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil demand will fall by 80,000 barrels per day this year because of the war in Iran. Global oil production rose by 10.1 million barrels per day to 97 million barrels per day in March, the IEA says in its latest oil market report published today. At the beginning of April, an average of about 3.8 million barrels of crude oil, gas and refined products per day were transported through the Strait of Hormuz, while in February that was 20 million barrels per day. Part goes via alternative routes. In total, 13 million barrels per day are exported less. Resuming shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains the key factor in easing pressure on energy supply, prices and the global economy, the agency said. Supply crisis Bloomberg reports that IEA chief Fatih Birol has said that oil prices do not yet reflect the severity of the unprecedented supply crisis caused by the war with Iran, but that this will soon be the case. He warns that more than 80 power plants have been damaged and recovery could take as long as two years. The gas price is also being affected by the latest developments around the war in Iran. The current price at the time of writing is €44.35 per megawatt hour on the TTF futures market. That is higher than before the weekend (€43.64 per MWh), but lower than Monday (€46.41 per MWh). There is also an uneven decline from the recent peak of 16 March when the gas price stood at €61.81 per MWh. The mild weather is currently working in our favour, so there is less demand for heating. Europe mainly sources liquefied gas from Norway and LNG from the US, although part also comes from Qatar. India and China buy much more LNG from Qatar and are therefore more directly affected. In the end, it is also about the highest bidder. To fill gas reserves, Europe therefore has to compete with Asian countries. Gas reserves are low at the start of the filling season. According to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, the EU filling level is currently 29.5%, while Dutch gas reserves are 6.2% full the lowest filling level in the EU. Since this week, ICE has also expanded trading in gas futures and options on the TTF from 10 to 22 hours per day. This is to bring the futures contracts more in line with other platforms such as Henry Hub and JKM, which were already open 22 hours per day. Electricity The daily average for electricity on Epex Spot day ahead fluctuated last week between €59.11 per MWh on 11 April and €132.45 per MWh today. There are no negative quarter hour electricity prices these days.