American acreage hits lowest level in half a century

The United States is set to see its smallest potato acreage in decades. Insiders think that acreage is expected to decline sharply, particularly in the largest potato-producing state. In Canada, the potato sector is less negative and the expected contraction is much smaller.In the US, 364,620 hectares of potatoes were planted last year according to the USDA. The acreage that was actually harvested totals 362,120 hectares. That is 2,500 hectares less than were planted. In Canada, according to the US Department of Agriculture, total acreage was 160,220 hectares planted and 158,518 hectares harvested.Smallest since 1952 American insiders now assume that production will shrink by 2.7% this year, equivalent to 9,713 hectares, bringing the total acreage to 354,907 hectares. If this turns out to be true, it would mark the lowest level since 1952. The last time acreage took such a dive was in 2010, when 357,220 hectares were planted.Important in this story is also to highlight the situation in Canada. The Canadian grower organization United Potato does not expect the potato acreage to change significantly this year. In its first forecast, it expects a decline of only 0.1%. Only in Quebec and Ontario is production expected to decline significantly. This is mainly offset by Manitoba, where almost 6% is added due to increased processing capacity.Small contraction in total Not everyone agrees with that. From America, a small decline of just over 1% is expected. That means estimates range between 158,640 and 160,568 hectares. Based on the latter figure, the North American total comes to 515,475 hectares. That is still 1.8% less than last year's 524,840 hectares.Since 2018, when 133,730 hectares were planted in Canada, the acreage has steadily grown, mainly due to increased processing capacity and a larger volume of exports to the US and other destinations.Turning back to the US, at a five-year average yield of 50.54 tons per hectare, production for the estimated acreage is 17.94 million tons. That is the lowest volume since 2013.Largest decline in Ohio Strikingly, in absolute terms this American acreage decline is mainly due to Idaho. Insiders expect that 6,000 hectares less will be planted. On the one hand, that is not so surprising, since the state is by far the largest potato-producing state with 121,400 hectares of potatoes. In Washington, the second-largest state with 56,660 hectares, acreage is expected to remain unchanged. Further declines can be seen in Florida, Texas, California and Nebraska.Idaho has three large fry producers: Lamb Weston, McCain and Simplot. Growers are said to have completed their contract negotiations with these players. Two of the three have kept the contracted volume stable, while with the third it is even growing slightly. Prices have decreased by an average of 4%. Processors of granules and flakes are sharply reducing their contract volumes by 20% to 33%.McCain needs more potatoes Undoubtedly, independent potato growers in this state are choosing to plant less. In the US too, the open market has been weak so far this season. Another sign is that more land is left fallow to make better use of scarce irrigation water. In Canada, contract negotiations at some processors are still ongoing. Volumes vary by factory. McCain has greatly expanded processing capacity at its Coaldale, Alberta facility. More potatoes are needed for that. In other places, volumes remain stable or slightly lower. The North American market has its own dynamics and therefore follows a slightly different trend than in Europe. There is a potato surplus, and US and Canadian fry exports are also lower, but there is no enormous imbalance as we see in the EU-4. The expected sharp contraction in the US is good news for Canada, which is strongly dependent on its neighbour. Canadian fry exports were 2.5% lower in 2025, but are still 11% higher than the five-year average. Fewer potatoes in the US could cause demand to rise again.