US dairy exports expand sharply in February amid a contraction in imports

February 2026 delivered strong overall results compared with the same month in 2025, despite several category-specific declines. Exports of MPCs and dairy blends declined by 11.55%, while Modified Whey decreased by 1.56%. WPC <80 recorded a decline of 12.60%, Casein fell sharply by 60.47%, and Caseinates decreased by 53.60%. Lactose exports were relatively stable, declining marginally by 0.17%, while infant formula dropped by 26.11%. In contrast, all other product categories recorded growth, with fat-based products showing particularly strong performance. Whole Milk Powder increased by 34.67%, Cheese by 30.37%, Butter by 92.81%, and AMF by 52.13%.Overall, February exports increased by 13.11%, equivalent to an additional 174 million kilo of liquid milk equivalent (LME). US dairy exports February - Tons Products 2025 Jul/05 ∆ ∆% SMP 48,476 52,351 3,875 7.99% WMP 2,717 3,659 942 34.67% Whey 15,930 21,570 5,640 35.40% Dairy blends/ mpc's 4,371 3,866 -505 -11.55% Mod. Whey 15,347 15,108 -239 -1.56% WPC < 80% 9,672 8,453 -1,219 -12.60% WPC80/WPI's 6,059 6,411 352 5.81% Casein 511 202 -309 -60.47% Caseinates 471 195 -276 -58.60% Lactose 33,196 33,139 -57 -0.17% I/F 2,474 1,828 -646 -26.11% Cheese 45,160 58,875 13,715 30.37% Butter 5,254 10,130 4,876 92.81% AMF 3,405 5,180 1,775 52.13% Cream 2,559 3,376 817 31.93% Fermented 5,592 7,793 2,201 39.36% Condensed 2,102 2,151 49 2.33% Milk 7,682 8,131 449 5.84% Year-to-date (YTD) export volumes through February are 12.59% higher than the same period in 2025, representing an increase of 332 million kilo of LME. Growth has been partially constrained by declines in several key categories, most notably dairy blends, WPC <80, WPC/WPI, Casein, and Caseinates. However, gains in other dairy product categories have more than offset these reductions, supporting overall export growth. US dairy exports February YTD - Tons Products 2025 Jul/05 ∆ ∆% SMP 95,251 108,127 12,876 13.52% WMP 3,957 6,952 2,995 75.69% Whey 31,011 41,370 10,359 33.40% Dairy blends/ mpc's 8,911 7,575 -1,336 -14.99% Mod. Whey 32,620 33,795 1,175 3.60% WPC < 80% 19,227 15,883 -3,344 -17.39% WPC80/WPI's 14,435 11,776 -2,659 -18.42% Casein 1,173 517 -656 -55.92% Caseinates 822 493 -329 -40.02% Lactose 65,144 66,130 986 1.51% I/F 4,318 2,877 -1,441 -33.37% Cheese 92,079 110,729 18,650 20.25% Butter 8,484 19,343 10,859 127.99% AMF 7,302 9,762 2,460 33.69% Cream 5,426 7,084 1,658 30.56% Fermented 10,642 14,301 3,659 34.38% Condensed 3,259 4,467 1,208 37.07% Milk 17,223 18,199 976 5.67% US dairy imports continued to decline year-over-year in February, with a significant gap compared to the previous year. Imports fell by 12.65%, equivalent to a reduction of approximately 38 million kilo of LME. The most pronounced declines were observed in fat-based products. US dairy imports February - Tons Products 2025 Jul/05 ∆ ∆% SMP 197 431 234 118.78% WMP 2,208 1,534 -674 -30.53% Whey 1,770 1,015 -755 -42.66% WPC <80% 1,812 2,184 372 20.53% WPC80/WPI's 854 644 -210 -24.59% MPC 2,353 5,570 3,217 136.72% Casein 3,019 1,754 -1,265 -41.90% Caseinates 1,304 1,421 117 8.97% Lactose 98 213 115 117.35% I/F 5,531 2,556 -2,975 -53.79% Cheese 16,515 12,977 -3,538 -21.42% Butter 5,780 4,210 -1,570 -27.16% AMF 1,118 69 -1,049 -93.83% Cream 5,292 4,679 -613 -11.58% Condensed 3,931 4,778 847 21.55% Yoghurt/Sour cream/Fermented 4,800 5,802 1,002 20.88% Milk 2,047 2,224 177 8.65% With overall volumes trending notably lower than last year, the data suggests that import momentum is weakening, particularly in key categories such as fat-based products. This trend aligns with the strong milk production growth observed since the beginning of 2025.YTD import data through February shows a decrease of 25.17%, equal to 163 million kilo of LME compared to the previous year, following a decrease of 27.84% in January. Declines were recorded across multiple categories, including Whole Milk Powder, Whey, WPC 80/WPI, Casein, infant formula, Cheese, Butter, AMF, and Cream. US dairy imports February YTD - Tons Products 2025 Jul/05 ∆ ∆% SMP 429 891 462 107.69% WMP 4,413 2,604 -1,809 -40.99% Whey 3,783 3,175 -608 -16.07% WPC <80% 3,986 4,670 684 17.16% WPC80/WPI's 2,430 1,854 -576 -23.70% MPC 10,010 5,520 -4,490 -44.86% Casein 4,966 3,787 -1,179 -23.74% Caseinates 2,511 3,010 499 19.87% Lactose 427 594 167 39.11% I/F 11,753 4,571 -7,182 -61.11% Cheese 33,684 24,274 -9,410 -27.94% Butter 13,357 8,713 -4,644 -34.77% AMF 2,776 760 -2,016 -72.62% Cream 7,741 8,271 530 6.85% Condensed 8,066 10,227 2,161 26.79% Yoghurt/Sour cream/Fermented 9,335 11,263 1,928 20.65% Milk 5,688 3,993 -1,695 -29.80% Milk production for the same YTD period stands at an increase of 3.37%, equivalent to 564 million kilo of LME. US milk production Products 2025 Jul/05 ∆ ∆% January 8,706,000,000 9,040,000,000 334,000,000 3.84% February 8,050,000,000 8,280,000,000 230,000,000 2.86% YTD 16,756,000,000 17,320,000,000 564,000,000 3.37% Against the backdrop of continued growth in milk production, imports are expected to remain under pressure. For market balance, it will be important that export growth continues in the coming months.