Bearish sentiment marked GDT Event 401

Since the previous Global Dairy Trade (GDT) event, market sentiment has turned bearish across all products. Event 401 may provide further direction, while international futures markets have shown weakness across all regions.Compared with the winning prices of the previous GDT auction, calculations based on SGX futures indicate a likely downward movement if GDT results align with futures under both the “all contracts” method and the “C2 contracts” method.Key market insightsNew Zealand milk production: Year-to-date February production is up 3.74%, or +169 million kilo, compared to +2.06% in January. Total YTD February production stands at 4,409,000,000 kilo.SGX dairy futures: Market sentiment has weakened over recent weeks for New Zealand dairy futures.Volumes and products: As the season approaches its end, offered volumes declined significantly at this event (despite the inclusion of BMP), falling by -18.08%, or -2,904 tons. Total auction volume stands at 13,162 tons.Exports: Year-to-date exports (February 2026) are down -2.28%, or -95 million kilo LME.Expected price impact: If Event 401 results align with SGX futures, the GDT price index could decline by -5.45% under both the “C2” method and the “all contracts” method.Composition of volumes: Whole Milk Powder (WMP) dominates offerings in Event 401, accounting for 54% of total volume. Price movements in this segment will have a significant impact on overall market sentiment and the GDT index. Notably, WMP prices on the SGX futures market have mostly declined since the previous GDT event.Global outlook: Dairy futures across the EEX, CME, and SGX reflect a weaker overall market sentiment.Futures development: Since the last GDT event, average futures (C1–C6) have continued to trade at higher levels compared to the average winning prices (AWPs) of Event 400, except for AMF. AMF -15.60% SMP -6.24% Butter -14.42% WMP -1.84% Overall, Event 401 is characterized by a bearish outlook based on current futures market signals. The strong increase in global milk production appears to have weakened the market balance observed a few weeks ago. At the same time, geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict involving Iran, may encourage buyers to secure additional volumes in anticipation of potential price increases.