FAO expects smaller wheat production in 2026

Increasing uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is currently having little effect on the outlook for wheat production in 2026/27. The Food and Agriculture Organization FAO is targeting a global harvest of 820 million tons. The FAO estimate is in line with the assessment recently published by the International Grains Council IGC. The grains council expects a harvest of 822 million tons of wheat next season. According to both estimates, wheat production will be lower than in the current season, which ends in June. According to IGC, production in 2025/26 will ultimately reach a new record of 845 million tons. The FAO is slightly lower at 839 million tons. The US Department of Agriculture USDA is in between with 842 million tons. All in all, this means a harvest outlook for next season that is around 20 million tons lower than this season. That is a big difference. This amount is comparable to the annual wheat production in Ukraine or Germany. However, the conflicts in the Middle East are putting pressure on the agricultural sector. Higher energy and fertilizer prices increase production costs and disrupt logistics chains. This may especially affect wheat crops still to be sown in the southern hemisphere and spring wheat in the northern hemisphere. In addition, shrinking margins may prompt farmers to consider crops that are less fertilizer intensive, which could also impact corn cultivation. Favorable conditions in Europe Within the European Union, wheat production is estimated at around 137 million tons, slightly lower than last year. This is due to smaller sown areas of winter wheat and a normalization of yields after last year’s higher yields. Nevertheless, favorable weather conditions support expectations for solid yields. In the United Kingdom, an increase is expected to above 13 million tons, thanks to a larger area and better yields. In Russia, a smaller area leads to lower production, while in Ukraine yields remain stable at around 23 million tons, despite concerns about frost damage earlier this year. Less wheat in the US In the United States, wheat production is expected to decline to around 51 million tons. This is mainly the result of lower prices, fewer sown hectares and drought in important growing regions. Canada sees a slight production decline to about 35 million tons with average yields. India, by contrast, is heading for a record harvest of 120 million tons, thanks to a record number of sown hectares and favorable weather conditions. In China and Pakistan too, the outlook remains stable, with production above the five-year average. In Iran, better rainfall and improved soil moisture conditions have led to favorable crop development, although the conflict remains a risk to the harvest. In Turkey, good winter rains and snow cover are driving strong yield expectations. After two dry years, wetter weather is returning in North Africa, supporting yields and production in 2026.