EU prepares for prolonged energy shortage

Energy prices are rising again. The European Commission is asking the member states to prepare for disruptions to oil and gas supplies from the Middle East that could last for a prolonged period. In particular, the transport sector should use less fossil fuels.Today, the energy ministers are meeting in an emergency session to discuss the energy crisis. In a leaked letter that EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen sent to the energy ministers of the member states, the European Commission calls on them to take voluntary measures to curb fuel demand, especially in the transport sector. According to Jørgensen, the European Union must prepare for a potentially prolonged disruption. They are also warned against taking unilateral measures, such as cuts to excise duties.Non-essential maintenance at refineries should be postponed and more biofuels should be used. According to various media, the letter also refers to the 10-point plan that the International Energy Agency (IEA) presented two weeks ago. It includes measures such as lowering the speed limit, working from home, promoting public transport and alternating licence plate schemes (odd-even driving restrictions). The Dutch government has not adopted any of these measures so far.Officially, Trump has set a new ultimatum for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, which expires on 6 April. However, he reportedly told his staff that even if the strait remains largely closed, he is willing to end the war, The Wall Street Journal writes. Although it is difficult to predict whether Trump will follow through on his statements, allies from Europe and the Gulf states are not eager to take the lead in reopening the strait and the question is whether Trump is really willing to deploy ground troops.Once again, an oil tanker was attacked yesterday. The tanker was near Dubai and caught fire, reports the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). In total, 16 ships in the region have now been attacked and nine suspicious activities have been reported since 28 February. These incidents are not limited to the Strait of Hormuz, but are also taking place in the Persian Gulf and on the eastern side of the strait, in the Gulf of Oman.Oil hits new recent high At the time of writing (Tuesday afternoon, 31 March), the Brent oil price has reached a new recent high of $117.03 per barrel. That is an increase of 14.5% compared with last Wednesday.Compared with the recent high of €200.05 per 100 liters based on a 4,000-litre purchase (LTO member price) on Monday 23 March, gas oil has fallen somewhat in price to €191.71 per 100 liters. Last Thursday, 26 March, however, the price was €180.21. So it can still make a big difference which day you buy diesel in large quantities.Inflation rises due to higher energy prices Prices at the pump are also causing inflation to rise again. In the eurozone, inflation rose from 1.9% in February to 2.5% in March. Energy prices rose by 4.9% year on year in the euro area countries.According to the CBS flash estimate, inflation in the Netherlands was 2.7% in March, compared with 2.4% in February. Compared with a month earlier, prices increased by 0.7%. Energy, including motor fuels, was 6.5% more expensive in March than in March 2025, while in February there was no increase in energy prices on an annual basis. Inflation for the group of food, beverages and tobacco was 2% year on year (1.4% in February). According to the European calculation method, inflation in the Netherlands in March was 2.6%.Gas reserves extremely low The gas price seems to be stabilizing at the current high level. €53.30 per megawatt-hour is the price on the TTF futures exchange at the time of writing. Last Wednesday it was €52.82 per MWh.The Dutch gas reserves are only 5.15% full. A year ago, the fill level on this date was still 21.1%. Tomorrow the new filling season begins. The Dutch cabinet is not worried. The global market for LNG is very flexible, which means that even in a prolonged conflict scenario it remains possible to attract sufficient LNG at higher prices to fill the gas storage facilities, the cabinet states in a recent letter to parliament.Electricity The daily average on the Epex spot market varied last week between €42.25 per MWh on 25 March and €121.24 today (31 March).