Egg prices still rising, but growth slows

Egg prices have risen again, though the pace of increase has slowed compared with last week.Over the past two weeks, northern european egg prices have continued to increase. For example, in week 13 the Dutch AG Index for brown eggs in the M size category reached €20.30 per 100 units. However, the rate of increase has now slowed somewhat compared to previous weeks. This week, the price rose by 11 cents, compared to 20 cents the week before. This is not surprising. Preparations for Easter have now largely peaked, meaning that peak farm-level demand has likely been met for the time being.Demand for eggs remains strong across all categories. Prices have risen significantly across the board, from colony cage eggs to organic eggs. There are no actual shortages—eggs are still available in virtually all stores. However, this does not mean supply is abundant. Consumers may need to choose a different package than usual, as specific brands and packaging types can indeed be sold out. This is the logical result of demand exceeding supply for more than a year.This also applies to consumer prices. The Dutch Consumers’ Association reports that egg prices have risen by 38% since 2021. Notably, price differences between different animal welfare levels are relatively small. In particular, the difference between barn eggs and free-range eggs is minimal. Barn eggs cost an average of 35 cents per egg, compared to 37 cents for free-range eggs. This is partly due to tight supply conditions, where availability weighs more heavily than animal welfare considerations. As a result, the gap with organic prices is also smaller, at around 43 cents per egg.The very small difference between barn and free-range eggs has another explanation. Due to disease pressure in recent years, housing orders (requiring poultry to be kept indoors) have been imposed regularly, which has significantly reduced the perceived value of outdoor access among consumers.German prices even higher In Germany, prices are even higher than in the Netherlands. The Weser-Ems industrial quotation for brown eggs (size M) rose to €20.68. However, the slowdown there is even more pronounced. In week 13, prices increased by only 6 cents.Avian influenza and, in Germany’s case, Newcastle disease remain important factors. These not only contribute to supply constraints but also mean that, due to ongoing disease pressure, it is unlikely that prices will fall sharply anytime soon.Market is preparing for growth High prices and tight supply are motivating laying hen farmers to increase production. In January, the placement of laying hens increased considerably compared to the past two years. Last year, placements were only around 12.5 million laying hens, mainly due to a shortage of hatching eggs. Since the supply chain has recovered, placements this year reached approximately 17.5 million laying hens. This is the most recent available month, according to the European Union’s monthly Eurostat report. However, this increase is partly offset by the impact of animal diseases currently affecting Europe.