Regional divergence in dairy futures

This week, dairy derivatives showed a broadly weaker tone on the New Zealand and European exchanges, while the US market presented a more mixed picture.CME The CME curve was generally softer, with a limited number of exceptions. SMP posted gains in C1 and C3 to C6. Butter moved higher in C2 to C6, whey increased across C1 to C6, and cheese rose in C5. Milk Class III declined in C2 and C3, while Milk Class IV moved lower in C1. In the CME spot market, both cheese contracts closed lower.SGX Trading on SGX was predominantly under pressure. WMP declined across most contracts, with only C5 and C6 unchanged to firmer. SMP was firmer in C5 and C6, while AMF weakened in all contracts except C5 and C6. Butter moved lower across the curve. Liquid milk was unchanged in C1 and C2 and increased in C3.EEX The European market also showed a broadly negative outcome. SMP declined across all contracts, while butter moved lower in all contracts except C1, which was unchanged. Whey declined in C4 to C6, was unchanged in C1, and moved higher in C2 and C3. Liquid milk weakened across the curve, with the exception of C1, which posted an increase. Overall, the CME market showed a mainly weaker trend, although several contracts in SMP, butter, whey and cheese provided pockets of support. CONTRACT CME 23-mrt 27-mrt ∆ ∆ % SMP March $3.484 $3.467 ↓ -0,49% April $3.937 $3.939 ↑ 0,03% May $4.024 $3.952 ↓ -1,81% June $3.920 $3.854 ↓ -1,69% July $3.799 $3.708 ↓ -2,41% August $3.701 $3.637 ↓ -1,73% Average $3.811 $3.759 ↓ -1,36% Butter March $4.222 $4.194 ↓ -0,65% April $3.923 $4.151 ↑ 5,82% May $4.012 $4.201 ↑ 4,71% June $4.092 $4.224 ↑ 3,22% July $4.153 $4.404 ↑ 6,05% August $4.235 $4.410 ↑ 4,14% Average $4.106 $4.264 ↑ 3,85% Whey March $1.466 $1.488 ↑ 1,50% April $1.451 $1.497 ↑ 3,23% May $1.469 $1.543 ↑ 5,03% June $1.466 $1.587 ↑ 8,27% July $1.456 $1.554 ↑ 6,78% August $1.438 $1.565 ↑ 8,81% Average $1.458 $1.539 ↑ 5,60% Block March $3.446 $3.439 ↓ -0,19% Cheese April $3.719 $3.649 ↓ -1,90% May $3.774 $3.715 ↓ -1,58% June $3.871 $3.843 ↓ -0,74% July $3.929 $3.933 ↑ 0,11% August $3.988 $3.955 ↓ -0,83% Average $3.788 $3.756 ↓ -0,85% Milk March $35,54 $35,60 ↑ 0,19% Class III April $38,34 $37,96 ↓ -0,98% May $39,11 $38,80 ↓ -0,79% June $39,77 $40,26 ↑ 1,22% July $40,54 $41,25 ↑ 1,74% August $40,96 $41,67 ↑ 1,72% Average $39,04 $39,26 ↑ 0,55% Milk March $42,20 $41,78 ↓ -0,99% Class IV April $45,19 $46,05 ↑ 1,90% May $45,72 $46,34 ↑ 1,35% June $45,22 $45,66 ↑ 0,98% July $44,53 $44,95 ↑ 0,94% August $43,98 $44,40 ↑ 0,95% Average $44,47 $44,86 ↑ 0,88% The CME spot market moved down for Cheese and Butter, but up for Whey and SMP. CME Spot market 23-mrt 27-mrt ∆ ∆ % Dry Whey $1.455 $1.521 ↑ 4,55% Cheese Blocks $3.649 $3.489 ↓ -4,38% Cheese Barrels $3.467 $3.450 ↓ -0,48% Butter $3.913 $4.023 ↑ 2,82% SMP $4.139 $4.238 ↑ 2,40% Following the results of GDT Event 400, sentiment on the SGX dairy futures market weakened across all products. That points to a softer market tone ahead of next week’s GDT event, as there is no auction this week. SGX 23-mrt 27-mrt WMP April $3.770 $3.700 ↓ -1,86% May $3.775 $3.725 ↓ -1,32% June $3.810 $3.760 ↓ -1,31% July $3.735 $3.720 ↓ -0,40% August $3.690 $3.695 ↑ 0,14% September $3.610 $3.670 ↑ 1,66% Average $3.732 $3.712 ↓ -0,54% Smp April $3.695 $3.585 ↓ -2,98% May $3.680 $3.600 ↓ -2,17% June $3.610 $3.580 ↓ -0,83% July $3.475 $3.450 ↓ -0,72% August $3.375 $3.400 ↑ 0,74% September $3.275 $3.345 ↑ 2,14% Average $3.518 $3.493 ↓ -0,71% AMF April $7.600 $7.275 ↓ -4,28% May $7.360 $7.265 ↓ -1,29% June $6.745 $6.600 ↓ -2,15% July $6.315 $6.265 ↓ -0,79% August $6.190 $6.200 ↑ 0,16% September $6.175 $6.180 ↑ 0,08% Average $6.731 $6.631 ↓ -1,49% Butter April $6.900 $6.730 ↓ -2,46% May $6.870 $6.530 ↓ -4,95% June $6.340 $6.150 ↓ -3,00% July $6.890 $5.755 ↓ -16,47% August $6.890 $5.590 ↓ -18,87% September $5.600 $5.295 ↓ -5,45% Average $6.582 $6.008 ↓ -8,71% Milk Sept '26 $9,82 $9,82 ↔ 0,00% Sept '27 $9,65 $9,65 ↔ 0,00% Sept '28 $9,15 $9,20 ↑ 0,55% European dairy markets showed mixed results this week. EEX in EUR 23-mrt 27-mrt SMP March €2.618 €2.610 ↓ -0,31% April €2.900 €2.800 ↓ -3,45% May €2.940 €2.864 ↓ -2,59% June €3.000 €2.885 ↓ -3,83% July €2.970 €2.881 ↓ -3,00% August €2.958 €2.879 ↓ -2,67% Average €2.898 €2.820 ↓ -2,69% Butter March €4.550 €4.550 ↔ 0,00% April €4.475 €4.213 ↓ -5,85% May €4.510 €4.225 ↓ -6,32% June €4.563 €4.264 ↓ -6,55% July €4.770 €4.348 ↓ -8,85% August €4.725 €4.428 ↓ -6,29% Average €4.599 €4.338 ↓ -5,67% Whey March €1.100 $1.100 ↔ 0,00% April €1.277 €1.350 ↑ 5,72% May €1.350 €1.500 ↑ 11,11% June €1.625 €1.538 ↓ -5,35% July €1.613 €1.516 ↓ -6,01% August €1.600 €1.519 ↓ -5,06% Average €1.428 €1.421 ↓ -0,49% Liq Milk March €38,88 €39,43 ↔ 1,41% April €40,09 €39,45 ↓ -1,60% May €40,72 €40,21 ↓ -1,25% June €41,52 €41,04 ↓ -1,16% July €42,15 €41,65 ↓ -1,19% August €43,09 €42,62 ↓ -1,09% Average €41,08 €40,73 ↓ -0,83% EEX in USD euro/Dollar 1,1615 1,1508 >> -0,92% 23-mrt 27-mrt Smp March $3.041 $3.004 ↓ -1,22% April $3.368 $3.222 ↓ -4,34% May $3.415 $3.296 ↓ -3,48% June $3.485 $3.320 ↓ -4,72% July $3.450 $3.315 ↓ -3,89% August $3.436 $3.313 ↓ -3,57% Average $3.366 $3.245 ↓ -3,58% Butter March $5.285 $5.236 ↓ -0,92% April $5.198 $4.848 ↓ -6,72% May $5.238 $4.862 ↓ -7,18% June $5.300 $4.907 ↓ -7,41% July $5.540 $5.004 ↓ -9,69% August $5.488 $5.096 ↓ -7,15% Average $5.342 $4.992 ↓ -6,54% Whey March $1.278 $1.266 ↓ -0,92% April $1.483 $1.554 ↑ 4,74% May $1.568 $1.726 ↑ 10,09% June $1.887 $1.770 ↓ -6,23% July $1.873 $1.745 ↓ -6,88% August $1.858 $1.748 ↓ -5,94% Average $1.658 $1.635 ↓ -1,41% Liq Milk March $45,16 $45,38 ↑ 0,48% April $46,56 $45,40 ↓ -2,50% May $47,30 $46,27 ↓ -2,16% June $48,23 $47,23 ↓ -2,07% July $48,96 $47,93 ↓ -2,10% August $50,05 $49,05 ↓ -2,00% Average $47,71 $46,88 ↓ -1,75% Against the final trading session of 2025, current performance shows a marked regional divergence. Most commodities posted gains, while US whey futures were the sole contract to move lower. Among the three trading blocs, New Zealand delivered the strongest overall performance. Region Product Change 27/03/'26 VS 26/12/'25 USA CME SMP 45,42% BUTTER 19,75% WHEY 3,58% BLOCK CHEESE 10,20% MILK CLASS III 12,10% MILK CLASS IV 44,63% USA CME SPOT CALL MARKET WHEY -5,48% CHEDDAR BLOCKS 18,54% CHEDDAR BARRELS 11,79% BUTTER 30,12% SMP 62,92% NEW ZEALAND SGX WMP 17,83% SMP 36,67% AMF 22,79% BUTTER 23,43% MILK '26 8,51% MILK '27 19,14% MILK '28 7,60% EU EEX SMP 35,18% BUTTER 0,58% WHEY 34,39% LIQ MILK 2,47%