Middle East unrest affects a quarter of EU fries exports

The current conflict in Iran and surrounding countries has an impact on almost every sector and everyday life. The potato sector and frozen potato processors are no exception. The Middle East is of vital importance to the major European exporting countries. During 2025, the seven largest countries accounted for a combined volume of 338,646 tonnes of deep-frozen fries. This represents almost a quarter (23.86%) of total EU-4 trade last year. If this region buys less, or nothing at all, due to unrest, it is a significant blow to the already struggling European processing sector. Even if the flow of fries continues, costs will be higher due to higher fuel and container costs.CountryVolume in 2025 (mt)Saudi Arabia188,085Jordan26,445United Arab Emirates46,389Kuwait30,463Qatar13,081Oman12,149Israel22,034Total338,646Saudi Arabia is the largest buyerSaudi Arabia is by far the largest buyer of frozen fries from Europe. It takes around 300,000 tonnes annually, of which almost three quarters come from Belgium, the Netherlands, France and Germany. Egypt is another significant supplier, and more recently India and China have also made inroads, although official data is limited.The United Arab Emirates follows in second place, taking over 46,000 tonnes last year. Kuwait ranks third with just over 30,000 tonnes. Shipping to the Gulf states has come to a near standstill since the US and Israel started a war on Iran on February 28. Currently only Jeddah is available as a large port facility for food imports and other products. The Gulf states rely heavily on food imports from Europe, Asia and Africa.Shipping costs have risen Aside from closed ports and shipping routes, mainly the Strait of Hormuz, there are added costs for reefer containers. The Drewry World Container Index has been rising weekly over the past month. Insiders say that overall shipping costs have risen by 15% since the start of the conflict. Insurance companies have more than doubled their premiums for freight to and from the Gulf states. This means that many shipping companies have decided to pause new bookings and cancel existing ones.As the war drags on, the impact is becoming increasingly significant for global shipping. And it doesn’t stay limited to the Strait of Hormuz. Renewed activity by Houthi rebels in Yemen on ships in the Red Sea also impacts this shipping route, and more importantly, the route through the Suez Canal. The canal is vital for global trade, and a blockage would create havoc if it were to fully close. In 2021 the container ship Ever Given blocked the world’s busiest waterway, causing an estimated loss of $15 million per day.Suez Canal avoidance Because of the terrorist attacks, at least 13 shipping operators (including MSC) have decided to reroute their ships and avoid the Suez Canal. According to the Suez Canal Authority, 55 ships were rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope between mid-November and mid-December, with 2,100 ships still opting for the shorter route. Taking alternative routes typically adds 10 days to Asia-Europe voyages. It's really a tale of two developments. On the one hand you have the war in Iran and the impact it has on the export market for many products, including frozen fries. On the other hand, there are the increased shipping costs and uncertainty that play an important role in global trade. All in all, a challenging outlook for European exporters that are looking to increase exports of fries and other potato products to the Middle East and other regions.