Chinese dairy imports contract sharply in early 2026

January was a negative month for Chinese imports, with six commodities recording declines. Notable volume decreases were observed in SMP, WMP, whey, lactose, and AMF & cream.Overall, January ended with a 13.03% decrease in imports, equivalent to a reduction of 195 million kilo LME. January Imports January '25 January '26 ∆ ∆% SMP 22,275 14,304 -7,971 -35.78% WMP 58,385 37,656 -20,729 -35.50% Whey 56,896 54,405 -2,491 -4.38% WPC80/WPI's 2,875 2,977 102 3.55% Casein 685 2,341 1,656 241.75% Caseinates 1,690 3,150 1,460 86.39% Lactose 12,681 10,083 -2,598 -20.49% I/F 15,241 15,344 103 0.68% Cheese 14,534 20,231 5,697 39.20% Butter 11,619 12,191 572 4.92% AMF 4,014 2,770 -1,244 -30.99% Cream 22,660 22,335 -325 -1.43% Yoghurt 780 1,144 364 46.67% Condensed 703 1,017 314 44.67% Milk 32,421 41,592 9,171 28.29% February performed even worse than January, with only three commodities posting gains: I/F, cheese, and condensed milk. February concluded with a decline of -16.22%, corresponding to a reduction of 238 million kilo LME. February Imports February '25 February '26 ∆ ∆% SMP 28,226 17,262 -10,964 -38.84% WMP 45,575 39,271 -6,304 -13.83% Whey 56,569 51,967 -4,602 -8.14% WPC80/WPI's 3,188 1,995 -1,193 -37.42% Casein 1,530 1,523 -7 -0.46% Caseinates 2,950 1,871 -1,079 -36.58% Lactose 11,854 7,441 -4,413 -37.23% I/F 15,063 15,286 223 1.48% Cheese 15,019 18,420 3,401 22.64% Butter 13,193 10,464 -2,729 -20.69% AMF 4,938 2,086 -2,852 -57.76% Cream 21,975 21,918 -57 -0.26% Yoghurt 904 713 -191 -21.13% Condensed 800 882 82 10.25% Milk 29,493 24,492 -5,001 -16.96% The cumulative performance through February has been strongly negative, effectively reversing the upward momentum established last year. Several commodity segments, such as SMP, WMP, whey, WPC80/WPI, lactose, butter, AMF, and cream, have underperformed expectations. Overall, year-to-date (YTD) imports through February declined by -14.46% compared to the same period last year, representing a total volume loss of 428 million kilo LME. YTD February Imports YTD February '25 YTD February '26 ∆ ∆% SMP 50,502 31,566 -18,936 -37.50% WMP 103,959 76,927 -27,032 -26.00% Whey 113,465 106,373 -7,092 -6.25% WPC80/WPI's 6,064 4,972 -1,092 -18.01% Casein 2,215 3,864 1,649 74.45% Caseinates 4,639 5,021 382 8.23% Lactose 24,535 17,524 -7,011 -28.58% I/F 29,304 30,630 1,326 4.52% Cheese 29,553 38,651 9,098 30.79% Butter 24,812 22,654 -2,158 -8.70% AMF 8,952 4,857 -4,095 -45.74% Cream 44,635 44,254 -381 -0.85% Yoghurt 1,685 1,857 172 10.21% Condensed 1,502 1,899 397 26.43% Milk 61,914 66,084 4,170 6.74% The pace of decline began to ease between July and October 2024, with early signs of recovery emerging in November and December. This positive momentum continued into the first half of 2025 (January–June). However, August recorded a year-on-year decline, followed by a brief recovery in September and October. Imports declined again in November and December. The year 2026 has started on a notably weak footing, with losses comparable to those last observed in 2024.In China, economic conditions remain mixed. The labour market continues to be weighed down by persistently high unemployment. Inflation dynamics have been volatile: after trending downward since August, inflation briefly increased in January before turning negative from February through May. June and July showed positive inflation, followed by renewed declines in August and September. Inflation turned positive again in October and continued into November and December, reaching +0.8%.In addition to macroeconomic challenges, low domestic milk prices are exerting pressure on the market. Farmgate prices in February 2026 stood at CNY 304 per 100 kilo, equivalent to €37.22 per 100 kilo.Ongoing surplus milk production is expected to translate into increased export activity. Early signs of this trend were visible in the 2025 export data. However, YTD figures through February 2026 have turned negative: export performance shifted from +138% (404 million kilo LME) to -11.82%, equivalent to a decline of 9.9 million kilo LME. YTD February Exports YTD February '25 YTD February '26 ∆ ∆% SMP 807 1,654 847 104.96% WMP 6,829 5,238 -1,591 -23.30% WPC80/WPI's 0 3 3 Casein 13 27 14 107.69% Caseinates 15 80 65 433.33% Lactose 123 170 47 38.21% I/F 1,135 1,067 -68 -5.99% Cheese 227 248 21 9.25% Butter 1,115 508 -607 -54.44% AMF 352 346 -6 -1.70% Yoghurt 4,449 564 -3,885 -87.32% Cream 12 40 28 233.33% Fermented 537 651 114 21.23% Condensed 166 463 297 178.92% Milk 4,910 6,759 1,849 37.66% Shipments below 400 tons are most likely return consignments, while volumes exceeding this threshold may indicate the early stages of China’s transition toward becoming both a dairy importer and exporter.Export performance by product category has been particularly notable. SMP exports increased by 105%, while liquid dairy products also recorded strong gains. Although still in its early stages, recent performance suggests China has the potential to become a significant dairy exporter, particularly in SMP, WMP, I/F, butter, and liquid milk.