Potato processors have a bad feeling about 2026

The Dutch potato processor has returned to work after the New Year with an enormous reluctance. The relatively long period of reflection during the Christmas recess has been poorly digested by the manufacturer. The mood in the potato market has been particularly poor all season. Competition from China and India in the fries market, import duties in the United States, a rising dollar exchange rate, and large harvests all converged, causing the price of both free and contract potatoes to plummet. Although the European fries industry has been severely impacted by these factors, little of that was reflected in the production of the factories. Yes, processing was 5% behind last season in the first six months. However, that is far from shocking. And if we tally up the amount of potato product during this period, it seems that not much is really wrong. The total production from July to December is only 2% smaller than last season. While 4% less pre-fried product such as fries was produced, this has largely been compensated by more other potato products coming off the line. No interest in potatoes In this light, it is surprising that fry manufacturers showed as early as October and November that they were not waiting for potatoes. Contracts were even bought out. And for free potatoes, the buyers from the factories seem to be completely allergic. They would rather not have contract potatoes than have them. Based on the wait-and-see attitude of fry manufacturers, one would expect that processing would be much lower than that minus 5%. However, slowly but surely, the malaise in the fries market is also beginning to permeate the fries factories. It is as if the quiet period around Christmas and the New Year is blowing a new wind through the factories. The processing figures for January and February suddenly show a very different picture than in the previous months. In the first two months of 2026, about 100,000 tons of potatoes were processed less than last year. That is an enormous amount. It is comparable to a line of trucks with tire blowouts full of potatoes, which could fill both the Afsluitdijk and the Markerwaarddijk. That is 50 to 60 kilometers of trucks. In just two months, 15% fewer potatoes have been processed. That is on a different scale than the 5% in the first six months. It suddenly depicts a very different reality in the fries industry. We also see this in neighboring countries, where Clarebout/Simplot feels compelled to close the factory at the main site for a week and a half. Production staff have been sent home. It is also visible at Lutosa (McCain) in Belgium, where weekend production has been scaled back. But the potato grower is left with the biggest problem. Because where can they go with those hundreds of thousands of tons of free potatoes that are still hovering over the market? Even paying €1 or €2 per 100 kilograms still seems no guarantee to prevent a grower from being left with their 'valuable' product. The end of the season approaches In the coming months, something will really need to happen to solve this problem. In Belgium, involved organizations are sitting down to discuss what to do about this situation. Early next week, it will become clear what ideas they have for that. The French have established a platform to promote sales for animal feed. In the Netherlands, forage traders and individual potato growers are heading towards animal husbandry and also digesters. And some packers are even being offered potatoes for €0 delivered. A broad sector approach is still lacking. In that regard, it is still deafeningly quiet among organizations that could take the lead in searching for a possible solution or relief for the affected farmers.