IGC forecasts smaller wheat harvest for 2026/27

Global wheat production is expected to decline by about 23 million tonnes in the 2026/27 season, according to the International Grains Council (IGC). In a first estimate, IGC expects a global wheat harvest of 822 million tonnes in the upcoming season. In the current season, a new estimate predicts a harvest of 845 million tonnes. This is significantly more than in the previous season, in which 801 million tonnes of wheat were harvested. According to IGC's first estimate, wheat production is expected to decline by 2.7%, mainly due to a decrease in area and slightly lower yields. At the same time, consumption growth continues, driven by increasing demand for food and industrial applications. Although the relatively high starting stocks from 2025/26 provide some buffer, this is insufficient to fully compensate for the production decline. As a result, ending stocks are again expected to shrink, leading to a tighter market balance. For wheat, this means that the downward price pressure in the current ample season may gradually diminish. Black Sea remains crucial, but uncertain The Black Sea region remains critical for the global wheat balance. In Russia – the world's largest exporter – the outlook for the 2026 harvest is currently favorable. The Russian market advisory agency SovEcon has raised the wheat production forecast in Russia to 87.6 million tonnes, supported by a larger winter wheat area and good soil moisture conditions. However, significant uncertainty remains. The critical growth phase in April and May is yet to come, and local drought – for example in the Rostov region – poses a risk. Forecasts above 90 million tonnes are thus considered premature. This underscores that the market remains highly weather-dependent for now. Geopolitical risk via fertilizers and energy In addition to weather influences, geopolitics plays an increasingly significant role in price formation. The conflict in the Middle East has direct implications for input costs, particularly via fertilizers and energy. The region around the Persian Gulf is responsible for a significant portion of the global export of urea (up to 35%) and ammonia (up to 30%), while about a quarter of the global oil export also passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Disruptions in this logistical corridor have recently led to sharp increases in fertilizer prices.