GDT Event 400: WMP decline offset by strength in SMP and AMF

Event 399 recorded a marginal increase of +0.1%, marking the sixth consecutive increase this year. Since the previous GDT event, market signals had been mixed, and Event 400 confirmed this uncertainty. The outcome was more modest than suggested by SGX futures for “all contracts,” which indicated a +4.0% increase.The weaker result was primarily driven by Whole Milk Powder (WMP), which declined across all contract periods. The average winning price (AWP) closed at $4,330 per ton, representing a +0.70% increase compared to Event 399.New Zealand’s offered volume decreased by -0.51%, or -52 tons, compared to Event 399. This was due to the absence of Butter Milk Powder (BMP) and an increase in the offered volume of Skim Milk Powder (SMP).Year-to-date (YTD) milk production in New Zealand through January has risen by +2.45%, equivalent to an additional 65 million kilo, with production standing at 2.44 billion kilo.GDT Event 400 results PRICE INDEX UP +0.1%, AWP $ 4.330 NZ Supply AMF UP +6.4%, AWP $7,602 ↑ BUTTER DOWN -0.9%, AWP $ 6.868 ↓ Cheddar UP +0.1%, AWP 4,925 ↑ SMP UP +5.2%, AWP $ 3,409 ↑ WMP DOWN -4.0%, AWP $ 3,709 ↓ European and US Supply Butter (Solarec) DOWN -8.95%./ $ 5,283/mt (average price) ↓ Mozzarella UP 0.5% AWP $ 4,208 ↑ Lactose DOWN -0.3%/ AWP US $ 1,450 ↓ SMP W-Europe, Arla, UP 2.80%, AWP $ 3,176 (average price) ↑ SMP W-Europe, DMK, N.P./ AWP N.P. ↔ SMP W-Europe, Solarec, UP 3.61%, AWP $ 3,298 (average price) ↑ SMP USA N.A. / AWP N.A.. ↔ WMP W-Europe, Solarec UP 1.16% . AWP $ 4.067 (average price) ↑ AMF increased by +6.4%, with the largest gains observed in C3. The butterfat value in AMF is $7,640 per ton on a 100% fat basis.Butter decreased by -0.91%. This decline was solely driven by European butter, while New Zealand butter increased by +2.08%. The butterfat value in butter is $8,325 per ton on a 100% fat basis. The difference in butterfat value between butter and AMF is now +$685 per ton in favour of butter.Cheddar increased slightly by +0.1%.SMP increased by +5.2%, with the strongest gains in C4.WMP decreased by -4.00%, with the largest decline in C4 and the smallest in C2.A significant spread was observed between front-month and later-dated contracts in butter. European and US Supply Most non-New Zealand prices increased, except for butter and lactose, which declined. SMP from DMK and the US remained unchanged, as it was either not sold (DMK) or not offered (US). On the day of the GDT auction, the CME spot call session saw US SMP settle at $4,218 per ton (FOB basis).Although SGX had indicated the direction of the GDT result, the market response in the days following the auction was moderate. Approximately half of the quotations increased significantly, with the strongest gains observed in SMP and AMF. WMP 04/03/2026 18/03/2026 ∆ ∆% March $3,850 $3,738 -$112 -2.91% April $3,965 $3,830 -$135 -3.40% May $3,995 $3,865 -$130 -3.25% June $3,990 $3,880 -$110 -2.76% July $3,895 $3,755 -$140 -3.59% August $3,830 $3,660 -$170 -4.44% SMP March $3,370 $3,423 $53 1.57% April $3,465 $3,635 $170 4.91% May $3,450 $3,635 $185 5.36% June $3,390 $3,560 $170 5.01% July $3,300 $3,415 $115 3.48% August $3,230 $3,330 $100 3.10% AMF March $7,145 $7,420 $275 3.85% April $7,145 $7,570 $425 5.95% May $7,055 $7,490 $435 6.17% June $6,700 $6,950 $250 3.73% July $6,450 $6,365 -$85 -1.32% August $6,260 $6,280 $20 0.32% BUTTER March $6,850 $6,913 $63 0.92% April $6,925 $7,035 $110 1.59% May $6,945 $6,985 $40 0.58% June $6,825 $6,740 -$85 -1.25% July $6,450 $6,140 -$310 -4.81% August $6,230 $5,940 -$290 -4.65% Average prices C1-C6 04/03/2026 18/03/2026 ∆ ∆% WMP $3,921 $3,788 -$133 -3.39% SMP $3,368 $3,500 $132 3.92% AMF $6,793 $7,013 $220 3.24% BUTTER $6,704 $6,626 -$79 -1.17% The positive response on SGX reflects the GDT results and aligns with the broader market sentiment, which is currently influenced by geopolitical developments, including the war in Iran. With Event 400, Fonterra has continued to accumulate negative theoretical GDT results in terms of revenue. Despite six consecutive gains, the current season up to Event 400 shows a decline of -2.83%, equivalent to -$68 million, compared to the average prices of the 2024/25 season.