Northern-European cattle is about to drop in price

European beef prices remain consistently high, although cattle prices are expected to decline in the near future. Despite relatively weak demand, prices have stayed elevated. At the same time, lower Irish prices are creating new opportunities in the market.Slaughter prices for cattle in Northern Europe have continued to rise, reflecting a fundamentally tight supply situation. Dutch prices have increased for four consecutive weeks, reaching a level even higher than the German VEZG quotation. As a result, O grade cows are now quoted at €5.93 per kilo according to the Dutch Vee and Logistiek quotation, while the German VEZG remains at €5.90 per kilo.As has been the case over the past six weeks, market participants remain uncertain about the current dynamics in the beef market. Traders acknowledge that cattle prices are high, particularly in relation to demand levels. This creates challenges for meat traders, as high cattle prices make it difficult, if not impossible, to stimulate demand by lowering meat prices. Consequently, the market remains imbalanced, with persistently high prices and traders working hard to maintain margins under difficult conditions.German market participants report that hindquarter meat continues to sell relatively well, supported by seasonal demand ahead of Easter. However, forequarter meat remains difficult to sell. Cuts such as entrecotes and sirloins are performing well, while other parts lag behind. As a result, the limited cattle supply is no longer pushing prices higher. After Easter, cattle prices are expected to decline.Tightness is not limited to the German market. Slaughter rates remain relatively low across Europe. The Netherlands, previously an exception, has now returned to more normal levels. Up until week 7, slaughter rates in the country were above trend, but in the past three weeks they have aligned with the five year average. The lower cow slaughter rate has supported prices in recent weeks, but one major slaughterhouse has indicated that prices will be reduced significantly in the near future.Ireland continues to put pressure on the marketBeef traders report that Ireland continues to exert downward pressure on the market. The Irish market is characterised by both low demand and limited supply. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom continues to import large volumes of beef from Australia, New Zealand and South America. In the first two months of 2026, imports increased by 1.28 per cent compared to last year. Imports from New Zealand rose sharply, increasing by 240 per cent compared to 2024. Recent data from Brazil is not available, as the United Kingdom is not listed separately in Comtrade data. However, according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, imports in the first ten months rose by 125 per cent to 9,421 tonnes.As a result, the structural decline of the Irish beef sector does not support prices. According to Eurostat’s latest 2026 livestock production outlook, Irish slaughter volumes are expected to decline by 5.2 per cent to around 900,000 head in the second half of 2026. Overall production is forecast to fall by 4.2 per cent to approximately 11.6 million head. Despite these declines, prices are falling and are now notably below the European average, after having been above continental levels for an extended period. This creates opportunities for traders, who report that attractive deals can currently be found on the Irish market. Irish cattle prices are also declining rapidly, although they remain relatively high compared to Northern Europe. For example, O grade cows are quoted at around €6.30 per kilo, approximately 10 cents lower than before.