Stronger dollar and exports put pressure on wheat

The wheat price was under pressure again on Tuesday in the futures markets in Paris and Chicago. The cold spell in the United States is over. Significant competition from the Black Sea region and a stronger dollar are influencing the market. The damage caused by the cold spell in the United States is still unclear. The end of the cold period has already led to a slight decrease in price development. This was reinforced by reports from Ukraine and Russia regarding wheat exports. These reports weigh heavier now that the dollar is increasing in value again. In Paris, the price for May contracts fell by €2 to €205.25 per ton. The later contracts also saw a slight decrease in price. The first contract for the new harvest (September 2026) dropped by €1.75 to €212.25 per ton. Harvest 2027 declined even further, by €2.50 to €220.50 per ton. Chicago noted a decrease of 7.5 cents at the end of the day to $5.89¾ per bushel of wheat for the month of May. September showed a similar decline to $6.13¼ per bushel. A year later, the difference is slightly smaller, with a decrease of 5.25 cents to $6.44¾ per bushel. Despite the slight declines, prices are still somewhat higher than a week ago. In Paris, the month of May still shows an increase of €1.25 per ton. The new harvest is performing slightly better, with an increase of €2.75 per ton on a weekly basis for delivery in September. For harvest 2027, the increase over a week is €3.25 per ton. In Chicago, prices across the board are slightly below the levels of a week ago. Due to an appreciation of the dollar, the value in euros has slightly increased. Thus, the May contract is priced €1 higher than last week, at €188 per ton. The later contracts have also increased in euros. Reports from Russia indicate that wheat exports are being increased again. Ukraine states that exports remain stable despite the attacks from Russia. This backdrop mitigates the price-increasing effect of rising oil prices. Additionally, the uncertain course of the war in the Middle East is causing a cautious stance in the market.