GDT Event 400 extends mixed signals across dairy markets

Since the previous Global Dairy Trade (GDT) event, market sentiment has remained firm across most products, apart from SMP. Event 400 may provide further direction. Meanwhile, international futures markets have shown diverging trends by region, with CME and SGX generally trading lower, while EEX has moved higher.Compared with the winning prices from the previous GDT auction, calculations based on SGX futures indicate a mixed outlook. If GDT results align with futures under the “all contracts” method, an upward movement is expected, whereas the “C2 contracts” method suggests a potential decline.Key Market InsightsNew Zealand milk production: Year-to-date (January) production is up 2.45%, equivalent to an increase of 65 million kilo. This compares with +2.40% reported in December. Total YTD January production stands at 2.43 million tons.SGX dairy futures: Market sentiment has generally strengthened in recent weeks for New Zealand dairy futures, with some exceptions. SMP shows unchanged levels in C1 and increases across C2–C6. AMF is unchanged in C1, with gains in C5–C6. Butter remains unchanged in C1–C2. Liquid milk is unchanged in C1 but declined in C2 and C3.Volumes and products: As the season progresses towards its end, offered volumes declined slightly by 0.51%, equivalent to 82 tons. Total auction volume stands at 16,066 tons. BMP is not offered in this event, while SMP volumes have increased.Exports: Year-to-date exports (January 2026) are down 4.80%, equivalent to a decrease of 105 million kilo LME.Expected price impacts: If Event 400 results align with SGX futures, the GDT price index is expected to increase by 0.52% under the “C2” method and by 4.0% under the “all contracts” method.Composition of volumes: Whole Milk Powder (WMP) dominates the product mix, accounting for 60% of total offerings in Event 400. Price movements in WMP will therefore have a significant impact on overall market sentiment and the GDT index. Notably, WMP futures on SGX have mostly declined since the previous event.Global outlook: Dairy futures in the EU have remained on a firmer trajectory, while CME and SGX markets have shown weaker sentiment.Futures development: Since the previous GDT event, average futures (C1–C6) have generally traded above the average winning prices (AWPs) observed in Event 400, except for AMF. AMF -1.46% SMP 14.84% Butter 1.56% WMP 3.44% In summary, Event 400 presents a mixed outlook based on developments in the futures markets. Although global milk production is increasing strongly, this has not yet translated into bearish price pressure. However, it may limit the potential for a bullish outcome. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in Iran could prompt buyers to secure additional volumes in anticipation of higher prices going forward.