Where did all the additional milk production go in 2025?

The year 2025 proved to be exceptionally strong for global cow milk production. The combined additional output from the 17 largest milk-producing countries was nearly equivalent to New Zealand’s entire annual production and represented a 2.59% increase compared with 2024.Of all milk produced, only 0.31% was exported, accounting for roughly 12% of the incremental production. This implies that approximately 17.4 billion kilo of milk were consumed domestically within these countries, representing an increase of 2.2% compared with 2024. When considering production plus imports and subtracting exports, total domestic milk availability reached approximately 20 billion kilo in 2025. Country Milk production 2024 Milk production 2025 ∆ ∆ % Incremental import Incremental export Incremental P + I - E 12 months India 231,000,000 239,269,800 8,269,800 3.58% -43,066 -7,202 8,233,936 Pakistan 65,435,000 66,368,000 933,000 1.43% 33,399 7,200 959,199 EU 145,720,000 148,063,000 2,343,000 1.61% 439,091 536,263 2,245,828 UK 15,442,000 16,251,000 809,000 5.24% 178,554 503,881 483,672 USA 102,463,000 105,079,000 2,616,000 2.55% -217,196 671,752 1,727,052 Canada 9,645,371 9,846,468 201,097 2.08% 85,487 23,824 262,761 Australia 8,417,000 8,242,000 -175,000 -2.08% 104,590 -245,149 174,739 NZ 21,531,000 21,929,000 398,000 1.85% 34,872 71,986 360,886 Argentina 10,590,000 11,618,000 1,028,000 9.71% 13,219 264,795 776,424 Uruguay 2,039,000 2,157,000 118,000 5.79% -1,273 73,051 43,676 Brazil 25,337,000 27,390,000 2,053,000 8.10% -137,755 -10,959 1,926,204 Russia 34,072,000 34,177,000 105,000 0.31% 25,260 -24,640 154,900 Belarus 8,750,000 9,256,000 506,000 5.78% 0 93,420 412,580 11 months Turkey 21,040,000 21,302,200 262,200 1.25% 20,194 53,723 228,671 China 41,600,000 41,500,000 -100,000 -0.24% 678,583 404,059 174,524 Mexico 13,553,000 13,825,000 272,000 2.01% 352,397 19,090 605,306 Japan 7,357,000 7,418,000 61,000 0.83% 2,628 0 63,628 Total 763,991,371 783,691,468 19,700,097 2.58% 1,578,650 2,435,097 18,833,985 India publishes its milk production data by milk season, so the figures above represent an estimate. A similar situation applies to China, where official production data have not been published to the best of our knowledge; the figures used here are therefore based on production forecasts.Global cow milk production is estimated to total approximately 910 billion kilo. The difference between this figure and the totals discussed above reflects production from a few additional countries, particularly in Asia and South America.Within the group analyzed, several countries were particularly effective in exporting a large share of their incremental milk production. The UK, Uruguay, and Argentina stand out in this regard, followed by the US, primarily due to a steep increase in imports, and Turkey. All other countries exported roughly 20% or less of their incremental milk production.According to the FAO, dairy prices increased by 13.11% in 2025 compared with 2024. This price increase helps explain the expansion in milk production, but provides limited insight into the observed import and export dynamics.Although dairy prices rose significantly, one factor that may have supported increased consumption is the broad-based improvement in real incomes during 2025 as inflation declined. However, the current US/Israel - Iran conflict is already pushing inflation higher again, which could negatively affect the outlook for the near future.The first month of 2026 shows no change in the overall production trend. In January, milk production increased by 2.2% in the US, 4.8% in the EU, 2% in New Zealand, 1.5% in Australia, 9.7% in Argentina, and 7.5% in Uruguay, while Japan recorded a decline of 1.1%.Returning to the question posed in the title of this article, the incremental milk production did not travel very far. Most of the additional milk was either consumed domestically or processed into dairy products and subsequently stored.In recent months, there has been considerable speculation about the balance between processing and production. Given the price developments in dairy commodities, a large-scale storage scenario appears unlikely. At the same time, a sharp increase in domestic consumption also seems improbable. The USDA Economic Research Service estimates average annual dairy consumption growth at 0.59% over five years, while the European Commission places annual consumption growth between 0.3% and 0.7%.Of course, the world extends far beyond the US and the EU. While there is some anecdotal evidence of rising incomes in parts of Asia, it would be a considerable stretch to attribute the global milk surplus primarily to stronger consumption in these regions.Between the two unlikely explanations, stockpiling currently appears to be the slightly more plausible scenario when compared with the possibility of an extraordinary surge in global dairy consumption.